Wright State vs. Detroit - 3/6/16 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Detroit Titans (16-14) at Wright State Raiders (20-12)
College Basketball: Sunday, March 6, 2016 at 3:30 pm (Joe Louis Arena)
The Line: Wright State Raiders -1.5 -- Over/Under: 151 See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 3
The Detroit Titans and Wright State Raiders will square off in the 2nd round of the Horizon League Men’s Championship this Sunday afternoon at Joe Louis Arena.
The Detroit Titans (16-14) didn’t have any problems finding their offensive against the Youngstown State and was able to defeat the Penguins, 92-79. Detroit was able to take a 47-36 halftime lead in this one and was able to hold off a late run by Youngtown State after the Penguins cut the Detroit lead to a 77-71 margin with just over five minutes to play. Detroit shot 47.8% from the field and outrebounded Youngstown State by a 42-27 margin. The Titans allowed the Penguins to shoot 46.4% from the field and 40.0% (8-20) from beyond the arc. Leading the way for Detroit was Cameron Morse who had 26 points, 7 assists, 3 rebounds, and a steal. On the season, the Titans have been led by Paris Bass (18.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.5 bpg), Anton Wilson (14.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.3 spg), and Chris Jenkins (12.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.1 spg). Offensively, Detroit is averaging 83.8 ppg on 46.5% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from beyond the arc. The Titans average 8.2 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 0.99. Defensively, Detroit is allowing their opponents to average 83.0 ppg on 46.2% shooting. The Titans have a rebound margin of 1.2 and average 7.0 steals per game.
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The Wright State (20-12) Raiders was outstanding on the defensive end and had no problems revenging a recent loss to UIC Flames as they were able to defeat UIC by a 74-43 margin. Wright State used two big runs in the 1st half to take a 34-17 halftime lead and led by at least double-digits throughout the 2nd half in the victory. Wright State shot 42.6% from the field and 50.0% (14-28) from beyond the arc. The Raiders held the Flames to 22.6% shooting from the field and won the turnover battle by a 20-10 margin. Leading the way for Wright State was JT Yoho who had 15 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, and a steal. On the season, the Raiders have been led by Mark Alstork (12.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.6 apg), JT Yoho (12.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.5 apg), and Joe Thomasson (9.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.3 apg). Offensively, Wright State is averaging 68.2 ppg on 44.8% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from beyond the arc. The Raiders average 7.2 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.17. Defensively, Wright State is holding their opponents to an average of 66.3 ppg on 42.6% shooting. The Raiders have a rebound margin of -3.8 and a turnover margin of 2.4.
The Titans are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Detroit and Wright State split their regular season series as Detroit won a 75-68 matchup in late January while Wright State won a close 77-76 battle early in conference play. Detroit, like many teams in the Horizon, is a high-scoring offensive team that also gives up plenty of points on the defensive end. Currently, Detroit ranked 8th in the country in scoring offense and 35th in three-point FG% however, on the defensive side rank 339th in scoring defensive. Wright State is the only team in the Horizon to defeat Valparaiso this season and although they can struggle at times on the offensive end, have one of the best defensive teams in the Horizon as they rank 49th in the country in scoring defense. Detroit has played well against Wright State this season however, I really liked how the Raiders defense looked against UIC and as long as the Raiders can shoot even half has well as they did again the Flames, I think Wright State will be able get the win. I’m interested to see where this line is when it’s released but as long as Wright State is only favored by about 4-6 points, I’m currently leaning towards the Raiders. Please check back later for updates.
Update (10:55 AM EST) - Wright State isn't as favored as I thought they would be which I'm happy about as I was going to take Radiers even if they were favored by more. I'm sticking with Wright State and their solid defense to cover this small spread.