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Hofstra Pride vs. UNC Wilmington - 3/7/16 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

UNC Wilmington Seahawks (24-7) at Hofstra Pride (23-8)

College Basketball: Monday, March 7, 2016 at 7:00 pm (Royal Farms Arena)

The Line: Hofstra Pride -2 -- Over/Under: 150.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: NBCSN

The UNC Wilmington Seahawks and Hofstra Pride will face off in the CAA Men’s Championship this Monday night at Royal Farms Arena.

The 2-seed UNC Wilmington Seahawks (24-7) used a 16-2 run early in the 2nd half to open up a double-digit lead and was able to hang on to defeat the 6-seed Northeastern Huskies, 73-70, on Sunday afternoon. Northeastern was able to fight bac from a 55-42 to the UNC Wilmington lead to a 70-69 margin, but both Denzel Ingram and Chris Flemmings was able to hit key FT’s in the closing seconds to secure the victory. Leading the way for UNC Wilmington was Chris Flemmings who had 21 points, 5 rebounds, and a block. On the season, the Seahawks have been led by Chris Flemmings (15.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1.4 spg), Denzel Ingram (12.3 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.6 spg), and Craig Ponder (10.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.0 spg). Offensively, UNC Wilmington is averaging 79.4 ppg on 45.6% shooting from the field and 33.5% shooting from beyond the arc. The Seahawks average 6.9 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.17. Defensively, UNC Wilmington is allowing their opponents to average 71.4 ppg on 41.8% shooting. The Seahawks average 7.8 steals per game and a turnover margin of 3.9.

Hofstra Pride vs. UNC Wilmington - 3/7/16 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The top-seeded Hofstra Pride (24-8) was able to hold William & Mary to just one basket over the last 3:41 of the game to defeat the Tribe by a 70-67 margin. Hofstra and William & Mary were locked in a close battle throughout the game but the Pride was able to use an 8-0 run in the 2nd half to gain some separation and was able to hang on late to advance. Leading the way for Hofstra was Ameen Tanksley who had 23 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and a steal. On the season, the Pride have been led by Juan’ya Green (17.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 7.1 apg, 1.7 spg), Ameen Tanksley (15.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.4 apg), and Rokas Gustys (13.7 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 1.2 bpg). Offensively, Hofstra is averaging 79.3 ppg on 44.4% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from beyond the arc. The Tribe average 8.5 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.32. Defensively, Hofstra is allowing their opponents to average 73.5 ppg on 44.4% shooting. The Pride have a rebound margin of 2.3 and average 6.4 steals per game.

The Seahawks are 17-6-4 ATS in thier last 27 Monday games and 0-4 ATS in thier last 4 games overall. The Pride are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win and 4-1 ATS in thier last 5 games following a ATS win.

UNC Wilmington and Hofstra split their regular series season as both won close games on the road with Hofstra winning a 70-69 contest in late February while UNC Wilmington won a 70-67 battle in early February. UNC Wilmington has an outstanding offense that ranks 40th in scoring offense and has a defense that can cause turnovers as they rank 31st in the country in steals per game. Hofstra has arguably the most talented starting five in the CAA with conference player of the year, Juan’ya Green leading the way and has been playing outstanding as of late winning their last 8 games. UNC Wilmington was able to put away Northeastern largely due to forcing the Huskies to commit turnovers and as they have won the turnover battle against the Pride by a 29-16 margin over their first two games against Hofstra, I ‘m initially leaning towards taking UNC Wilmington if they are getting a few points in this one. Please check back for updates once the line is posted.

Update (12:24 PM EST) - I keep going back and forth on the this one which probably means I'll stay away fromit. If I had to go with a pick, as much as I'm concerned that UNC Wilmington will be able to win this one by causing turnovers, I think Hofstra is just the more talented team in this one and can cover this spread as long as they protect the ball. I'm taking Hofstra to cover this small line. 

 

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Hofstra Pride -2

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