Texas vs. Kansas 2/8/10: Dave's Free Pick Against The Spread College Basketball Big 12

Kansas (8-0,22-1) at Texas (5-3,19-4)

NCAA Basketball: Monday February 8, 2010 9PM ET (ESPN)

The Line: Kansas -1

Kansas and Texas kick off Rivalry Week with a nationally televised showdown between two of the top teams in the Big 12.

Recent History:

Kansas has won their last five games including road games at Colorado, KansasState and Iowa State. The Iowa State game was a cake walk, but the Kansas StateColorado games both went into overtime. On Saturday, the Jayhawks played what was suppose to be a blowout win at home against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, but turned into an actual game with Nebraska taking a four point lead in the second half before Kansas sealed the deal.
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Texas has lost three of its last five games, including a 77-80 home loss to Baylor on January 30th.  Since losing to Kansas State on January 18th as the number one ranked team in the nation, the Longhorns have been in free fall, losing four of their last six games. The two wins in that stretch were at Oklahoma State and at home against Texas Tech.

Trends:

Kansas is 9-9-1 ATS this season

Kansas is 2-4-1 ATS on the road

Kansas is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games

Kansas is 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games

Texas is 9-9 ATS this season

Texas is 6-5 ATS at home

Texas is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games

What to Expect:

Expect the scoreboard to be busy. Kansas has the forth ranked offense with 83.74 points a game and Texas has the third best offense averaging 84.09 points per outing. For Texas, most of the production runs through Damion James who is averaging nearly 18 points per contest. In their past two contests however, James has been held in check, scoring just 14 against Oklahoma State and 12 against Oklahoma. Sherron Collins continues to drive the number one ranked Jayhawks who have a bevy of weapons, which makes them difficult to stop. We predicted a letdown by the Jayhawks on Saturday and I think that is exactly what we got. While they are winning games, Kansas is not looking very dominant at all, but at least they are winning games, which Texas has struggled to do. I expect this one to be close, and that brings us back to a Texas constant that has helped us many times this season, poor Longhorn free throw shooting. Texas is hitting just 61% at the charity strike and against Oklahoma they made just 10 out of 27. That’s 37% folks, and a great deal of those misses occurred in the second half when they were trying to battle back. Overall, Kansas is the better team, and Collins and company have the edge coming down the stretch.

Dave’s Pick: Kansas -1

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