Mississippi State Bulldogs Vs. Arkansas Razorbacks 11/17/12 Mitch’s Free College Football Pick Against the Spread
The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Arkansas Razorbacks face off on Saturday in SEC college football action.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have lost three games in a row and after a perfect and promising start they are reeling in SEC play. Tyler Russell has completed 60.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions while rushing for another two touchdowns. LaDarius Perkins is averaging 5.3 yards per carry with eight touchdowns and Josh Robinson has averaged 5.0 yards per carry with one touchdown. Chad Bumphis leads MSU with 43 catches and eight touchdowns, Chris Smith has 40 catches and two touchdowns, and Arceto Clark has 27 catches. Defensively Mississippi State allows 21.4 points per game, 163.3 rushing yards, and 216 passing yards with 12 interceptions and 16 sacks. Cameron Lawrence has 87 tackles and four sacks, Bernardrick McKinney has 79 tackles, and Nikos Whitley has 71 tackles. Mississippi has shown the ability to dominate the weaker teams but hasn’t been competitive against the better teams.
This is a season they would rather forget for the Arkansas Razorbacks as a top ten preseason ranking is now one loss away from no bowl game this year. Tyler Wilson has completed 60.9 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Dennis Johnson is averaging 5.5 yards per carry with eight touchdowns and Knile Davis averages 3.4 yards per carry with two touchdowns. Cobi Hamilton has 73 catches and four touchdowns, Chris Gragg has 22 catches and three touchdowns, and Mekale McKay has 16 catches and a touchdown. Defensively Arkansas allows 30 points per game, 119.7 rushing yards, and 291.1 passing yards with six interceptions and 25 sacks. Ross Rasner has 74 tackles, Rohan Gaines has 63 tackles, and Alonzo Highsmith has 54 tackles. Arkansas is easily among the most disappointing teams in college football this year.
Mississippi State is 4-1 against the spread against a team with a losing record, 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 home games, and 2-6 against the spread following a loss. Arkansas is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven SEC games, 1-8 against the spread in their last nine road games, and 0-6 against the spread against a team with a winning record. The home team has covered the spread in nine of the last 10 meetings of these two.
Arkansas hasn’t been good but I can see them making a stand here and at least covering the spread if not pulling the outright upset.