Mississippi State Bulldogs Vs. Auburn Tigers 9/8/12 Mitch’s Free College Football Pick Against the Spread
The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Auburn Tigers meet on Saturday in SEC College Football action.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming off of a disappointing season and Dan Mullen’s team sets their sights on surprising some teams this year. Mississippi State opened up against FCS Jackson State last Saturday which at least gave them a chance to tune up before the more meaningful schedule kicks in. QB Tyler Russell completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 185 yards and two touchdowns. Derrick Milton rushed for 65 yards and a touchdown on eight carries, LaDarius Perkins rushed for 58 yards and two touchdowns as MSU had no trouble moving the ball against their overmatched opponent. Arceto Clark had three catches, Marcus Free had two catches and a touchdown, and Chad Bumphis had a catch for a TD. The Mississippi State defense allowed 109 yards on the ground and 156 yards passing while intercepting two passes and sacking the QB twice. Chris Hughes led the Bulldogs with five tackles and he had a fumble recovery while Mathew Wells and Darius Slay had the interceptions. While Mississippi State had a hassle free easy win the opponent has nothing in common with the teams they will see the rest of the way.
The Auburn Tigers faced a stiff test against Clemson in their season opener but unfortunately for the Tigers hey came up short as they failed to convert on chances. Kiehl Frazier has good mobility at QB but much of the time is spent running for his life and when he does throw he has just two reliable receivers and even they dropped balls as he completed just 40 percent of his passes for 194 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Tre Mason and Onterrio McCalebb each were effective running the ball going for 106 and 86 yards respectively against a fast Clemson defense. Emory Blake had four catches for 109 yards including a 54 yard touchdown and Phil Lutzenkirchen had four catches for 78 yards. The Auburn Defense looks to be improved but they failed several times to wrap up Tajh Boyd as he turned losses into first downs which was the eventual difference in the game. The Auburn defense gave up yards in bunches allowing 320 yards on the ground and 208 through the air. With all of that offense for their opponents came big tackle numbers on defense as Daren Bates had 14 tackles and an interception, Ryan Smith had 11 tackles, and Jake Holland had 11 tackles. Auburn will need to improve defensively and convert on their chances if they want to win games this season.
Mississippi State is 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games, 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games overall, and 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 home games against a team with a losing road record. Auburn is 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games, 13-5 against the spread in their last 18 SEC games, and 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record. The favorite has covered in seven of the last 10 meetings of these two.
The total is set at 47 and I have just a slight lean to the over as my free pick. My stronger play is on the winning side and I will post that pick in the Premium Area as well as making the pick available for individual purchase.