Duke Blue Devils Vs. Clemson Tigers 11/3/12 Ryan’s Free College Football Pick Against the Spread
The Duke Blue Devils fell to 6-3 on the year after getting dominated by Florida State on Saturday 48-7. A week after becoming bowl eligible with their 6th win of the season, Duke traveled to Tallahassee and got their butts kicked, to say the least. Florida State is unbeaten in 18 games against Duke and has won by 19 or more points in each of those games. It became clear quickly Saturday that things weren’t going to change. The Blue Devils offense only managed 232 total yards, 129 passing and 103 rushing. The offense committed 10 penalties for 95 yards and only managed 4 3rd down conversions out of 18 attempts. QB Renfree completed 13 of 21 passes for 92 yards, and RB Duncan carried the ball 13 times for 46 yards and the only touchdown. Renfree had to leave the game in the second half after he was injured on a personal foul penalty against the Seminoles. On the other side of the ball, the Blue Devils were able to force 4 turnovers but could not capitalize on any of their opportunities. Duke S Norman stood out on the defensive side with a career-high 13 tackles, a forced fumble and two fumble recoveries. The Seminoles pounded the ball on the ground, rushing for 261 yards, as RB Freeman and RB Wilder Jr. combined for 174 yards and three touchdowns against Duke. FSU QB Manual completed 8 of 16 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns against the Blue Devils. Duke still remains in first place in the Coastal Division standings, tied with Miami and North Carolina. Things don’t get any easier for Duke this week, as they welcome the Clemson Tigers to town in what could be another blowout loss.
Clemson is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Duke. The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The over is 5-0-1 in Duke’s last 6 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Heading into this season, Clemson’s defense was the biggest concern and may have been the only thing holding the Tigers back from a BCS bowl. The defense has shown in the past two weeks, even with injuries, that they can play well. After getting dominated by FSU’s offense, Duke will not be able to stop Clemson’s offense either this week. I have to go with the road favorite in this one, as I believe Clemson rolls and wins by at least three touchdowns.