Miami Hurricanes Vs. Florida State Seminoles 10/20/12 Ryan’s Free College Football Pick Against the Spread
The Florida State Seminoles bounced back against the Boston College Eagles, 51-7, on Saturday after losing to NC State the week before. After being criticized for conservative play calling in the NC State game, the Seminoles went to the air early and often against the Eagles and never took their foot off the gas. The Seminoles offense gained 649 total yards and only faced 8 third downs in the game. QB Manual threw for a career high 439 yards and four touchdowns, but did throw two interceptions. Manual connected with nine different receivers in the game, but his main targets were WR Shaw and WR Smith, who combined for 11 catches and 233 yards. RB Freeman and RB Thompson combined for 138 rushing yards of the team’s 201 total rushing yards. Thompson leads the Seminoles ground attack with 640 yards on 84 carries and averages 7.6 yards per carry. Thompson also averages 120 all-purpose yards per game which ranks sixth in the ACC and 59th nationally. The Seminoles defense only allowed 225 total yards of offense, 96 yards rushing. Eagles QB Rettig came into the game averaging 306.2 yards passing a game, but only managed 122 yards against the ACC’s top defense. Florida State forced one turnover and only allowed the Eagles to convert on 3 of 15 3rd down conversions. The Seminoles will prepare for another potent ACC passing offense this week, as Miami ranks 24th nationally with 296.86 passing yards per game.
The Miami Hurricanes lost their first ACC game of the year, losing at home to North Carolina 18-14 this past Saturday. The Hurricane offense gained 415 total yards, but could not convert on third down and turned the ball over twice. QB Morris had a terrible day, throwing for 155 yards and two interceptions. Morris has done plenty with his arm this season, ranking 26th in the nation with 296.57 yards of total offense per game. The offensive line has done well protecting Morris over the last five games, allowing just two sacks in that time span. RB James had his career best rushing performance against the Tar Heels in terms of yardage and number of carries. James rushed for 96 yards on 22 touches. Miami’s defense struggled again, giving up 486 total yards. The only two things that stopped UNC from scoring more points was the 15 penalties for 140 yards that they committed and the one interception thrown by QB Renner. UNC RB Bernard carried the ball 27 times for 177 yards and two touchdowns against an inexperienced and weak front seven for the Hurricanes. Miami is currently ranked last in the ACC in total defense, giving up 506 yards per game. The Hurricanes have recorded six interceptions this season, ranking seventh in the conference. Similar to Florida State, Miami has used its youth a lot this season. Through seven games, 21 Hurricane freshmen have earned time on the field this season.
Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The underdog is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. The under is 5-0 in the Seminoles last 5 road games.
Florida State has won the past two years, winning in Miami 45-17 in 2010, and 23-19 at home last year. The 28 points win at Miami in 2010 is the only game in the last 10 meetings to not be decided by one score. Miami’s defense hasn’t proven that they can stop anyone, and the Seminoles should have no problem scoring in this one. The Seminoles defense has been great at home, but has been vulnerable on the road this year. Laying almost three touchdowns with a road favorite is not something I like to do in a conference rivalry game, but I lean towards the Seminoles in this one.