Kansas State (6-4) vs Missouri (5-4)

Line: Pick

Kansas State comes off of an emotional win against interstate rival Kansas 17-10.  Daniel Thomas ran for 185 yards and a score and sits atop the list of Big 12 running backs this season. The Wildcats finished with 332 total yards, with just 66 coming through the air. Kansas committed three turnovers and gained just 301 yards overall against KSU. Kansas State did not turn the ball over in the game. The win puts Kansas State in the drivers seat for the Big 12 North title pending a match-up with Nebraska on November 21st.

Missouri was embarrased at home with a 32-40 loss to the Baylor Bears. Missouri is now 1-4 in the conference and season hopes that were high six weeks ago are now deflated. Missouri was able to move the ball as Blaine Gabbert threw for 468 yards and two touchdowns, but couldn't produce points, particularly in the second half. Baylor outscored MU in the second half 24-5.  Nick Florence lit up the Tigers for 427 yards passing and three touchdowns.

Kansas State is 4-4 against the spread this season while Missouri is 3-5 against the number

Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games

Kansas State is 5-2 in their last 7 homes games against Missouri

Missouri is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games

Missouri is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games

K-States #69 ranked offense (26.1 ppg) matches up against the 63rd ranked Missouri defense (24.4 ppg)

Missouri's 57th ranked offense (27.9 ppg)  goes against the 45th ranked Kansas State defense (22.5 ppg)

Missouri failed to cover the 26.5 points spread last year in a 41-24 win. The over/under was 72

Outside of the Colorado game two weeks ago, Missouri has been horrible the last five weeks. What started as a surprisingly successful first half of the season has faded away.  Kansas State is going the other direction with their only loss in the past four games being an Oklahoma road game in which Kansas State went toe to toe with the Sooners after getting in a hole three minutes in. It pretty much goes without saying that Bill Snyder is a front runner for coach of the year as he has guided a Wildcat team that is night and day improved from the first part of the year. The Wildcats have been able to put pressure on the opposing offenses and should be able to get to a still hobbled Gabbert. On the other side of the ball, the Wildcat run game is a constant and should eliminate multi turnover games that a predominantly passing game can bring. My one worry about the Wildcats this week is a forward eye to the Nebraska game the following week which should decide the north division. This game may be close at half, but I look for the Tigers to fade in the second half again.

Dave's Pick: Kansas State

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