Arkansas Razorbacks (7-5) vs East Carolina Pirates (9-4)AutoZone Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium Memphis, TNCollege Football: Saturday January 2, 2010 5:30 PM ESTThe Line: East Carolina +7 1/2
Conference USA champion East Carolina gets a shot a big conference team as they take on the SEC's Arkansas Razorbacks in the Liberty Bowl. Arkansas had one of the more potent offenses in the country this year as QB Ryan Mallett wasn't shy about throwing it early and often. The Hogs averaged 303 yards through the air and 37 points a game running second year coach Bobby Petrino's offense. While Arkansas could put up points, it was a shootout nearly every week and we weren't wuite sure what we were going to see on a week to week basis. The Arkansas defense was sieve and though they won seven games on the season, they were just 3-5 in the conference. With five games left to go in the season Arkansas sat at 3-4 and won 4 of their last five to become eligible for this game. The Arkansas defense gave up over 25 points each game out and over 401 yards, not numbers that are going to get a team even close to winning often in the SEC. East Carolina didn't pull the big upsets like they did a year ago but still defended their Conference USA Championship with a win over Houston in the championship game. While they didn't beat Virginia Tech and West Virginia, they played both of them and played both extremely tough. Head coach Skip Holtz hasn't gotten a lot of attention when it comes to head coaching vacancies but I don't think that's going to be the case fro very long. Holtz has built a winner at ECU and he won't be flying under the radar forever. Patrick Pickney is still running the offense for the Pirates and he is really just the heart and soul of this team. He's one of those college players who has contributed for so long in his college career that it just seems like he's been around forever. He's a real gamer. Defensively, ECU has proven that they can hang with anyone in the country. They made the most potent offense in the country, Houston, look to totally struggle against them and this is a by product of their tough out of conference scheduling where they just don't back down from anyone. Arkansas is 6-1 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record and 4-1 against the spread in their last five as a favorite. East Carolina is 2-5 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record but 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points. I think Arkansas is going to be a force to be reckoned with in the future but that is when they get a defense. Generally in bowl games, if on of the teams can play defense and the other can't, defense wins. I will go with the same formula especially given this way too generous spread. Mitch's Pick: East Carolina + 7 1/2
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