Fantasy Football Draft 2013
Fantasy Football: Don't Reach on these Overvalued Picks
July 31, 2013
With the fantasy draft season kicking into full gear, it’s time to start focusing on the players you’d like to add to your team this year. As usual, there are plenty of potential trap picks in the draft this year, and we’ve got a handful of overvalued names who could be joining those ranks. Let’s take a closer look at some of the dangerous selections that won’t necessarily become complete busts, but likely won’t return your draft investment.
David Wilson, RB, New York Giants: The more we hear about the impending RB situation in New York, the more skeptical we are of Wilson’s fantasy value. He’s set to be sharing carries with fellow running back Andre Brown, with Brown getting the choice third-down and goal-line touches.
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Wilson struggled with consistency last year, and Giants coach Tom Coughlin won’t hesitate to limit his reps if he doesn’t clean up his blocking and pass-catching reliability. We’ve seen Wilson go as high as the late-teens among RBs in fantasy drafts, which is just way too high for what he’ll be bringing to the table. He’s more of a mid-20s name.
Montee Ball, RB, Denver Broncos: Let’s look at Ball’s positives before we get to anything else. He’s a hardworking and very promising rookie who should eventually land the starting gig in Denver and thus a spot as a decent low-end No. 2 name in fantasy.
He’s got some hurdles to overcome first, though. Ball needs to win the starting job over Ronnie Hillman, which won’t be as easy as some might think. Ball will more than likely get most of his looks on third down, when he’ll be relegated to helping keep Peyton safe while passing. That’s not enough upside for a mid-20s RB name.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts: We’ve seen Luck hit the top eight among fantasy QBs in some rankings this season, which is a bit high for our tastes. Sure, he’s talented, and yes, you shouldn’t hesitate to snatch him up if he’s available in rounds 7-8, but not before then.
Luck’s big drawback this season is the Colts’ shift in offensive philosophy. Expect the team to run more and feature a majority of quick-release pass plays. That reduces the possibility of huge-gain tosses, so expect his passing numbers to be a bit more modest. It won’t exactly be a sophomore slump, but it should qualify as a disappointment.
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: Does Brown have what it takes to be a No. 1 receiver now that Mike Wallace resides in South Beach? We’re not so sure. Pittsburgh’s offense will be taking a big step backward this year as they attempt to reload and conquer their injury demons. Brown will carry a heavy burden as the big name at WR, but he’s not quite the downfield threat Wallace was (he had just two games last year where his long was over 30 yards).
That said, he’ll be going anywhere from the mid-20s to the mid-30s among those at his position. If you can get him late, he’s worth it. Otherwise, don’t bother.
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants: Let’s head back to New York and take a look at Manning. He’s teetering on the brink of low-end No. 1 QB territory in deep leagues, but he probably won’t amount to much more than a matchup-based fill-in. He’s coming off a tepid 26-TD, 15-INT season in 2012 and failed to hit 4,000 yards for the first time in four seasons.
Some experts are picking Manning for a bounce-back campaign, but we’re not entirely convinced. He’ll need his running game to step up and also get some help from a healthy receiving corps to get back to those elite numbers--easier said than done. With the deep fantasy talent pool at QB this year, we’d leave him as a mid-level backup.
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