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Fantasy Football Stock Watch: 2013 NFL Week 5, Low Value Running Backs to Avoid

Jason's Fantasy Football Analysis: Low Value Running Backs to Avoid

October 4, 2013

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Stock Watch - Low Values to Avoid


C.J. Spiller - Spiller appeared to have the most promising role of all the running backs drafted in the late 1st round. The preseason phrase that stuck in the minds of fantasy footballers was that the Bills were going to "run Spiller till he throws up."  And as the entire Fantasy Football World now knows, that was a very untrue statement.

Fantasy Football Stock Watch: 2013 NFL Week 5, Low Value Running Backs to Avoid

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Spiller had a very nice run Thursday night against the Browns, and for a moment fantasy owners got a little excited.  But when the game was over, Fred jackson had nearly double the fantasy points of Spiller.  Buffalo is a true running back committee, and the term "starter" has no bearing on who gets more work in the Bills' offense. Fred Jackson is not only running at a better rate 4.75 ypc to Spillers' 4.0 ypc, but Jackson is also scoring the touchdowns.  Unless Jackson gets hurt like he did last season, there is really no reason to assume Spiller will live up to his 1st round investment.


Darren McFadden - Just when fantasy owners started to drop their guards, McFadden comes up lame.  Some players are cursed by injuries, and McFadden is a perfect example.  Fantasy owners that believed 2013 would finally be the year McFadden stayed healthy have once again shown very poor judgment.  This injury will cause McFadden's fantasy stock to plummet, but he should not be considered a good buy low option.  If you can acquire McFadden for another running backs handcuff or perhaps an over performing #3 wide receiver, then the move might be worth it.  McFadden has shown once again he cannot be trusted as a fantasy starter, and trying to buy low on him is a bad idea unless you enjoy fantasy football frustrations.


Chris Johnson - Oh how we love to believe and keep the faith, especially when all the offseason moves go according to plan.  Chris Johnson got an upgraded offensive line and a bruising running back to help him shoulder the load.  Johnson also showed some explosiveness and nice runs during the preseason to further entice fantasy footballers.  And how has CJ repaid the Fantasy Football World for keeping their faith in him, by being one of the biggest disappointments of the 2013 season.

Chris Johnson may eventually get his act together, but it is hard to see that happening anytime soon.  The Titans next three games are against the Chiefs, Seahawks, and 49ers.  After this brutal stretch against defensive powerhouses, Johnson will have the opportunity to rest and reflect during the Titans bye week.  If you are going to make a move to acquire Johnson as a second half rebound (and it is possible as the Titans schedule gets easier), then wait till his bye week to make a move to acquire him.  Johnson's value should continue to plummet because of the tough run defenses ahead and the injury to Jake Locker.


Maurice Jones-Drew - Jones-Drew's poor start to the season cannot be totally unexpected because he was not a full participant in training camp and the preseason.  Having said that, MJD has been much worse than even the most conservative of fantasy owners expected.  The Jaguars have been absolutely terrible on offense, and the season for their inability to score can be traced back to terrible quarterback play.  As of now, the Jaguars coaching staff is still supporting Gabbert and it appears that Gabbert could be the quarterback for the foreseeable future.  As long as Gabbert is the quarterback of the Jaguars, MJD has extremely low fantasy appeal.  If you anticipate a QB change is coming (Josh Freeman is on the market now), then make a move to acquire Jones-Drew.  But lets not forget there are some top QB prospects coming out of college this year, and the Colts laid a nice blueprint on how to get your man in 2011.


Stevan Ridley - How quickly can the insidious Beli-tricks destroy a fantasy football team?  As soon as the season kickoffs.  Ridley had a very strong season last year, but he had a few hiccups at the end of the year and in the playoffs.  Apparently Belichick did not get over these hiccups during the offseason, and now Ridley is digging his own grave in the fantasy football cemetery.  The Patriots are using a true running back committee at the moment, but LeGarrette Blount is starting to gain some momentum in the competition for carries.  With each passing week, it becomes harder and harder to make the case that Ridley will regain the lead role in New England's backfield.  Ridley should not be targeted in any trade negotiations, and in fact, fantasy owners should take advantage of this situation and deliver round after round of smack talk to the team that drafted him.


For Fantasy Football Updates and Insights Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSuperCommish

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