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Fantasy Football Draft 2014: Quarterback Busts

Taking a Look at Some of the Overvalued Players at the Quarterback Position

August 19, 2014

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It’s fantasy football draft season, and we prospective owners are knee-deep in speculation and research in preparation for the upcoming fantasy campaign. In that spirit, we’ve been checking out some of the potentially overvalued players in the NFL landscape this week.
Today it’s time to survey the quarterback position, and though some of these players may not be considered “busts” in the classic sense of the word, they probably won’t end up delivering on their lofty draft expectations. Here’s a closer look at the situations and numbers.

Nick Foles, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: If you’ve been following along at home, we haven’t been too optimistic about Foles and the Eagles offense this off-season. At first glance, you might think things are primed to go well: Foles tossed for 2,891 yards, 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his 13 starts last season, and Chip Kelly’s high-octane offensive system was a source of excitement for NFL fans everywhere.
The other proverbial elephant in the room is the conspicuous absence of DeSean Jackson, who’s now with divisional rival Washington. The drop in talent from Jackson to new No. 1 Jeremy Maclin will be palpable, and with teams having so much film on Kelly’s offense this year we don’t anticipate the dominance of last season. Foles will be a serviceable fantasy QB, but he’s far from an upper-tier No. 1 guy.

Fantasy Football Draft 2014: Quarterback Busts

USA TODAY Sports

Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers: Kaepernick is coming off a solid year at the QB position in San Francisco, and after nearly missing a Super Bowl berth last season, hopes are high with Niner nation. He posted 3,197 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2013, while adding another 524 and four scores with his legs.
Our hopes were admittedly high for Kaepernick coming into this year, and then the preseason happened. The San Francisco offense has been wholly unimpressive through two games thus far, and though we realize we can’t put too much stock in a couple of exhibition appearances, we can’t ignore them either. We see a regression in store for San Francisco, and though Kaepernick may save you with his running ability from time to time, he just doesn’t seem reliable enough to post as your No. 1 QB.

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots: We’re pretty conflicted about this one, as Brady’s name resonates with fantasy owners on so many levels, but we do admit that there are a few good reasons to avoid Brady in your draft this year--at least as a top-tier option.
Over the past couple of years as Brady has aged, the Patriots have adapted by transforming themselves from a high-flying passing offense to an in-your-face running team. They seem to pass now because they have to, not because it’s their strength.
Brady’s receiving corps doesn’t instill much confidence, either. Whether it’s injuries (Gronk, Amendola) or unknowns (Dobson), there’s a lot of uncertainty here.

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers: Newton is another fantasy QB who is getting by solely on name recognition these days. Most owners figure he’s in for a fall this year, though, considering the Panthers’ drop in talent level in their receiving corps during the off-season.
Cotchery, Avant and Benjamin don’t exactly instill confidence the way Smith, LaFell and Ginn did, which is a major cause for concern. Sure, Newton will still get some good rushing numbers this season, but there’s no way he should be on your fantasy roster except as a matchup-play-based backup QB. It’s simply too risky.

For the latest article updates, follow Andrew on Twitter @SCPAndrew.

 

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