Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice – 4/25
HIgh Cost & Value Picks for all your MLB Daily Fantasy Leagues
April 25th, 2015
Daily Fantasy Baseball – High Cost / Value Picks – 4/25/15
Please note, as Edinson Volquez is slated to start on Saturday, but could possibility be suspended from throwing a few punches in last night’s game, I stayed away from any White Sox players as the time of this write-up with uncertainly if Volquez is actually going to be on the mound on Saturday.
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Please remember to check the line-ups prior to the game and the weather reports to ensure you have a full roster of active players.
- High Cost – Jake Arrieta – Chicago Cubs
Jake Arrieta has gotten off to a nice start in 2015 posting a 2-1 record with a 1.74 ERA and 19 K’s in 20.2 IP. Arrieta, when healthy, has been one of the best pitchers in MLB and is a safe pick for your daily fantasy leagues as he can also pile of the strikeouts with his hard slider that right-handed batters have all sorts of trouble with. Arrieta didn’t have his best stuff in his last outing against Pittsburgh, but still was able to fight through 7 innings giving up just 1 run on 4 hits while still striking out 7. Arrieta is holding the current Reds lineup to a .227 batting average, and if he had everything working for him, he could easily go 8 innings in this one with getting around 10 K’s.
- Value Pick – Shelby Miller – Atlanta Braves
Shelby Miller, who the Braves acquired in the Jason Heyward deal over the off season, he gotten off to the exact start that Atlanta hoped he would as so far in 2015 he is 2-0 with 1.69 ERA in three starts. Miller has 11 K’s in 16.0 IP so far this season and he is a great value pick as he has a very favorable matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies who as of Friday, rank last in MLB in runs scored and 15th in total strikeouts. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have had some success of Miller in the past, but neither Howard nor Utley are the players they once were and I feel Miller has a good shot to pick up a win in this one while going 7 innings and getting 5-8 K’s.
- High Cost – Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants
Buster Posey is having a bit of a slow start to his 2015 season batting just .250 (career .307 hitter) however, there is no better way to raise the average than a trip to Coors field facing lefty Jorge De La Rose, who gave up 9 runs (7 ER) on 9 hits in just 2.0 IP in his first start of the season on Monday. Over the past three seasons, Posey is hitting .458 at Coors field and has a respectable .286 lifetime average with a homerun and 7 RBI’s against De La Rosa. Posey is currently riding a 3 game hitting streak and I think he is due for a big day on Saturday.
- Value Pick – Ryan Hanigan – Boston Red Sox
I’m picking Hanigan as my value pick today largely due to the success that the Red Sox have had against Baltimore’s lefty, Wei-Yin Chen. The current Red Sox roster is hitting .317 against Chen with 7 homeruns, and although Hanigan is only 2-10 lifetime against Chen, he does have a homerun against Chen. Hanigan got a day of rest on Thursday and in the last 7 days, Hanigan is hitting .357 (5-14) with a homerun and 2 RBI’s.
- High Cost – Albert Pujols – Los Angeles Angels
Albert Pujols isn’t exactly a “high-cost” pick but he’s worth a good look on Saturday as he has had great success against Texas righty, Colby Lewis. Pujols has posted a career .467 average with 2 homeruns and 5 RBI’s against Lewis and as the Angels roster is hitting .327 against Lewis as a team, Pujols will have a good chance to break out of his early season slump in this one.
- Value Pick – Adam Lind – Milwaukee Brewers
Adam Lind has been the only Brewers to really do anything worth mentioning when talking about the Brewers offensive as he has posted a .309 average with 2 homeruns and 8 RBI’s in 2015. Lind has really been hitting well at Miller Park hitting .400 and both his homeruns and the majority of his RBI’s have come at home. Lind does draw a tough match-up on Saturday going against Adam Wainwright but has had some success against the Cardinals ace as he has gone 3 for 5 with a double and homerun in career against Wainwright.
- High Cost – Dustin Pedroia – Boston Red Sox
As I mentioned in with Ryan Hanigan, the Red Sox have had great success against Baltimore’s Wei-Yin Chen and no one has had more success than the Red Sox second basemen. Pedroia is hitting an incredible .517 (15-29) with 5 doubles and 5 RBI’s. Pedroia is only hitting .254 on the young season, but over the past three seasons has hit .307 against left-handed pitching. I think the Red Sox are in for a big day on Saturday, and expect Pedroia play a big part of it.
- Value Pick – Jimmy Paredes – Pittsburgh Pirates
I’m going to stay in Baltimore for my value pick today at second base, as I’m going to go with Baltimore’s Jimmy Paredes. Paredes has started to see some regular playing over the past week, and has taken advantage of the opportunity as he is hitting .350 on the season and crushed Red Sox pitching in their series last weekend going 6-13 with 2 doubles. Paredes is facing Justin Masterson who although pitched well against Baltimore this past Monday, can be very hittable if he doesn’t have his sinker working for him.
- High Cost – Xavier Bogaerts – Boston Red Sox
You can probably tell that I’m banking on a high scoring Boston/Baltimore game and I’m to continue to roll with this thought as I’m taking the talented Red Sox shortstop as my “high cost” pick on Saturday. Bogaerts is batting .302 on the season and even a more impressive .364 away from Fenway Park. Bogaerts is hitting .364 so far this year against left-handed pitching, and although he is only hitting .273 (3-11) against Chen, he does have a homerun against Chen.
- Value Pick – Elvis Andrus – Texas Rangers
Elvis Andrus has gotten off to a slow start in 2015 as he is only batting .188, however, he has started to show some signs of life as of late as he has had two multi-hit games in this last three games. Andrus has an impressive .381 (8-21) average with 2 doubles, a triple, and a homerun against the Angel’s C.J. Wilson and has also hit .318 (7-22) against left-handed pitching so far in 2015. Andrus has a lifetime average of .340 at Angel stadium and with the fact that if he gets on base, he can steal a few bases, makes him a great value pick on Saturday.
- High Cost – Matt Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Carpenter is on absolute fire at the moment as he is hitting .417 over the past 7 days and has a 10 game hitting streaking entering Friday contest, with 8 multi-hit games in that span. Carpenter has had great success against Milwaukee’s Wily Peralta, as he has posted a career .458 average with a home run and 3 RBI’s. The St. Louis roster is hitting .316 off Peralta, and for the fact that Heyward and Holliday are also batting over .400 against Peralta, means there is a good chance that Carpenter will score if he can get on base.
- Value Pick – Cody Asche – Philadelphia Phillies
Cody Asche has been one of the very few bright spots on the Phillies line up and is a good value pick on Saturday if you’re trying to save some money on Saturday. Asche is hitting .333 on the season and has the power to be able to deposit the baseball in the stands. Asche is batting .360 at home on the season and is riding a 5 game hit streak going into Friday’s game. Asche hasn’t faced Atlanta’s Shelby Miller much as he is 0-1 with a BB against Miller in his career.
- High Cost – Michael Brantley – Cleveland Indians
Michael Brantley and the Indians have gotten off to a slow start in 2015 and Brantley, who missed a few games due to injury at the beginning of the season, seems to be starting to find his groove. Brantley has collected hits in three of his last four games and has posted a career .583 (7-12) average with 3 doubles and 6 RBI’s against Detroit’s Alfredo Simon. Brantley hit .337 against right-handed pitching in 2014 and although Simon has pitched well so far in 2015, he is allowing the current Indians roster to hit .373 (31-83) off him.
- High Cost – Giancarlo Stanton – Miami Marlins
Stanton has posted only a .241 average so far in 2015, but has shown the incredible power that he has hit 4 home runs in his last 7 games. Stanton will be facing a tough pitcher in the National’s Stephen Strasburg, however, Stanton has posted a .357 average (10-28) with 3 home runs and 9 RBI’s off Strasburg in his career. Stanton certainly likes the comfort of hitting in his home ballpark as over the past three years, he has posted .310 average and average a homerun in every 11.29 plate appearances.
- Value Pick – Marcell Ozuna – Miami Marlins
I’m staying in Miami for my first value pick at the outfielder position today, and going to roll with Marcell Ozuna who has been hitting an exceptional .474 (9-19) over the past 7 days. Similar to Stanton, Ozuna has had good success against Strasburg as he has posted .462 average with a double, triple, and homerun of the Washington righty. Ozuna has great power and certainly has the capability to take one of Strasburg’s fastball yard in this one.
- Value Pick – Carl Crawford – Los Angeles Dodgers
With San Diego starting the right-handed Ian Kennedy on Saturday, I imagine that we will be seeing Crawford getting a start in left field in this. Crawford is batting just .237 on the season, but was 4 for 10 with two doubles against the Padres in earlier series this year. Crawford has a .414 lifetime average with three doubles and four RBI’s against Kennedy and has hit .300 against right-handed pitching over the past 3 seasons.