Fantasy Football Draft 2016: Overvalued Quarterback (QB) Busts
QB Busts for the 2016 Fantasy Football Draft
August 27, 2016
For the past couple of weeks, we’ve been examining the 2016 fantasy football draft in a lot of different ways. Today we’re checking out some of the potentially overrated quarterbacks out there, and examining the numbers to see why they might bust their way straight to the cellar of your fantasy league. Let’s take a closer look at a few guys you might want to avoid on draft day—at least in the earlier rounds.
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars: As incomprehensible as this may have seemed a couple of seasons ago, Bortles is being drafted as a starting QB in fantasy leagues everywhere. He finished 2015 with the second-most touchdown passes in the NFL, and that rate is simply not sustainable.
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Bottles was also in the top six of passes attempted in 2015, and a lot of his numbers came in garbage time when the team was playing catch-up. Even worse, all off-season the Jaguars have been talking about how they’re going to be a run-first and defensive team this year (or try to anyway). There are plenty more surer things out there to spend a starting QB pick on than Bortles.
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals: When you see Palmer’s name on your draft sheet, red lights and warning buzzers should be going off in your head. The biggest concern here is his injury history; Palmer averaged just under 12 games per season before last year.
Age is another factor in Palmer’s inevitable decline; he’s going to turn 36 during the season. What’s more, the Cardinals (like the Jags) are concentrating on being a run-first, defense-oriented team this season. Sure, Palmer will put up great numbers here and there, but he’ll be way too inconsistent to serve as anything more than a backup.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: We’re kind of on the fence with this one, but Brees is being picked as a bust by so many outlets that we can’t ignore it, either. Sure, Brees has been excellent on a yearly basis for the last several seasons, but he’s 37 now, and at some point we’re going to see a decline in numbers.
Brees’ slow start last year should be cause for concern. He’s no longer a slam-dunk top QB from week to week (even though he did step up his game late last year), and doesn’t have the stable of can’t miss, go-to receivers he once did. Better to let someone else take the chance here.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots: If you’re drafting Brady, you’ve got to have a somewhat elaborate plan in place. He’s going to miss the first four weeks of the season due to his suspension, and one more for a bye, so that only makes him useful for a dozen games in 2016. Is that really worth a top-10 QB pick? And a quarter of your season spent with a dicey backup quarterback anchoring your squad?
We’re willing to bet Brady doesn’t start off hot once he gets back in there, either. The guy is getting up there in years, and even the best have to slow down eventually. Plus, the AFC East isn’t a cakewalk anymore; there are some really good defenses in there. If you can get Brady as a backup, go for it. Just don’t build your fantasy team around him.
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