Odds to Win Super Bowl XLVII Mitch’s Analysis and Early Picks For the 2013 Super Bowl
The New York Giants wouldn’t have qualified for the playoffs two years back with the record they won the NFC East with last season and even after winning the division it took two road wins for the G-Men to make the Super Bowl and eventually win the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Two seasons ago the Green Bay Packers were a Wild Card team that qualified for the playoffs after needing to win their final three games of the regular season then won three playoff games on the road. The moral of the story here is there is value to be found in betting NFL futures and even if you jump on board mid-season, more than likely there could still be plenty of value left on the board. Let’s look at this year’s odds. Odds in ().
Jacksonville Jaguars (145.5-1)- If there was a bet on who would be drafting first the Jags would be favored for that and I would be on that action.
Cleveland Browns (145.5-1)-The Browns aren’t going to win the Super Bowl so even at this price I can’t take them but they are better than the second worst team in the NFL.
Indianapolis Colts (125.5-1)-It’s tough to believe the Colts will be doing much this season despite being a perennial playoff team just two years ago.
Minnesota Vikings (105.5-1)-These odds aren’t an indication of how good or bad this team is because they addressed some needs and will be much better than last season but not Super Bowl material.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (85.5-1)-The Bucs fired their coach when they had a Super Bowl winner at the helm, now they have a college guy and it may take some time for this to work.
St. Louis Rams (85.5-1)-Jeff Fisher is a miracle worker but part of that is getting some talent. Improved over last season yes, Super Bowl, No.
Buffalo Bills (80.5-1)-The Bills looked like they had a chance last season and faded badly but they had a ton of injuries as well. No Super Bowl for the Bills.
Oakland Raiders (70.5-1)-These odds look to be a little long with Carson Palmer having a year under his belt and they were decent when McFadden wasn’t hurt.
Washington Redskins (60.5-1)-Everyone knows I am a big Robert Griffin III fan and a big time Shanahan hater. The Skins have absolutely no chance and these odds are an insult to our intelligence.
Tennessee Titans (60.5-1)-Call me crazy but I think this one is worth a play. They Titans were decent and drafted well and having Chris Johnson in camp is a good thing.
Kansas City Chiefs (60.5-1)-Eric Berry, Matt Cassel, Jamal Charles, etc. all missed all or most of the season last year, in a soft division they have a chance.
Carolina Panthers (52.5-1)-The problem here is four games against the Saints and Falcons so they need to go 10-2 or 9-3 against everyone else just to make the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks (50.5-1)-We all knew Tarvarious Jackson wasn’t the answer but I don’t think Matt Flynn is either.
Cincinnati Bengals (40.5-1)-This was a playoff team out of nowhere last year and they had a nice draft and did well in free agency. I am on this as a value play but a live value play as well.
Arizona Cardinals (40.5-1)-I hated the Michael Floyd pick and I don’t like what the Cards are doing at QB. They get Ryan Williams back but they need more.
Miami Dolphins (38.5-1)-I would rather go to a racetrack and pick out a 40-1 shot to put my money on than bet on a team with Mike Sherman calling plays and who drafted Ryan Tannehill with their first pick.
New York Jets (30.5-1)-Not one person is buying into the Tebow-Sanchez thing, this is one big mess by week six and everyone knows it.
San Diego Chargers (28.5-1)-The Chargers stopped trying to prove they were smarter than everyone by making wild trades in the draft and went back to just picking good players. Worth a punt.
Chicago Bears (25.5-1)-I think the Bears win their division this year as they have gotten better on offense and better on defense and when Cutler was healthy last year they were a playoff team.
Atlanta Falcons (25.5-1)-Maybe this is the year the Falcons get over the hump as I loved their draft.
Dallas Cowboys (22.5-1)-You read it here long before the season starts: The Dallas Cowboys have no shot at all of winning the Super Bowl this season and aren’t even a playoff team.
New York Giants (20.5-1)-The Giants were a team of destiny last season but they lost a ton and repeating is just so hard.
Detroit Lions (20.5-1)-I am not sure why the Lions are acting like they don’t need a running back, If they get a RB Detroit could make it.
Pittsburgh Steelers (18.15-1)-Let’s get this straight, a team that seems to always be in the Super Bowl or at least in the hunt is just slightly favored over the Cowboys?
Baltimore Ravens (16.5-1)-This year we wil be hearing this phrase often when it comes to the Ravens: it’s now or never and it very well could be now.
Denver Broncos (14.5-1)-Last year I said the Broncos would be the most improved team in the NFL, this year I say they are one of the most over rated.
Houston Texans (14.15-1)-The Texans were missing their best players at almost every position at some point last season and still had a chance. Houston is very close and could be the play.
New Orleans Saints (12.5-1)-Could have been the favorite and the pick but way too many things didn’t go their way this offseason and they are already playing for next year.
San Francisco 49ers (10.5-1)-Last season there were no expectations and they excelled but this year there will be pressure in San Francisco but have defense, will contend.
Philadelphia Eagles (10.15)-Should win the NFC East this season so they will at least have a ticket to the dance which is part of the equation. Not sure if they have what it takes.
New England Patriots (6.25-1)-Looking at New England’s draft it’s clear that they know why they didn’t win the Super Bowl last season, it’s called no defense. Did they find enough answers?
Green Bay Packers (6.15-1)-Other teams will start to figure out how to stop them but will the Pack be able to stop anyone because if they don’t they are going nowhere.