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Breeders Cup 2014: Breeders Cup Mile Early Preview, Odds and Picks

Kevin's Look at the 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Odds

2014 Breeders Cup Mile: Saturday November 1

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TV: NBC

The defection of Wise Dan is certainly a glaring one, but the effect it will have on the race is a matter of debate.  It’s easy to say think that it opens the race up and makes it more competitive, but the opposite may be true (depending on who you ask).  The role of favorite in this race will now be inherited by European invader Toronado unless something particularly curious happens.  He’s been pointed here all year, and many thought he would give Wise Dan a legitimate run for his money.  He won’t have to do that anymore.

Anodin, younger brother to heroine of Mile’s past, Goldikova, will also be making the trip along with Trade Storm and KarakoniteFiesolina is an impressive mare crossing the pond, quite possibly to be the forgotten one of the group, which could be a mistake. 

Breeders Cup 2014: Breeders Cup Mile Early Preview, Odds and Picks

Obviously and Tom’s Tribute are likely the best the West Coast has to offer.  Silentio, third in this spot last year, will join them.

Seek Again may offer America’s best shot, but that should mean he’ll be over-bet.  He’s shown immense talent, but also an affinity for trouble.  Grand Arch, Kaigun, and Sayaad are familiar (and probably less talented) foes of his expected to meet at the gate.

Summer Front, Big Bane Theory, and Veda are also possible starters, with Veda also possible for the Filly & Mare Turf.

 

Early Thoughts:  Wise Dan will be missed, no doubt.  It’s hard to know what to do with this race until we get a live look at the tote board as it gets close to post time.  It seems like the Europeans are coming after this one with intentions.  It’s said that Trade Storm may have been “ducking” Toronado overseas, which would be suggestive as he could be favored without the presence of Toronado.  The other two mentioned are no slouches either, although Karakonite does not enter the race in top form.

If I felt inclined to side with an American based runner, which I don’t, I would be far more likely to lean toward Obviously or Tom’s Tribute who are both familiar with, and have been successful on the track, than to jump on the Seek Again bandwagon.  It is no secret that he needs to be inside horses to focus.  That’s not something I’m going to put up with when the horse is almost certain to be over bet.    

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