Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins MLB Pick, Odds, Prediction - 6/26/14
Miami Marlins (38-39) at Philadelphia Phillies (35-41)
MLB Baseball: Thursday, June 26, 2014 at 7:05 pm (Citizens Bank Park)
Tom Koehler (R) (5-6) (3.745) vs. Cole Hamels (L) (2-4) (2.755)
The Line: Philadelphia Phillies -168 / Miami Marlins +158 --- Over/Under: 7.5 See the Latest Odds
TV: FSN-FL, CSN-PHI
The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies wrap up their four-game series on Thursday night.
The Marlins lead the series 2-1, but have lost six of their last 10 games overall. The Marlins offense, which has been consistent for much of the season, has produced three or fewer runs in five of their last eight games. Giancarlo Stanton has hit safely in eight of his last 10 games and Jarrod Saltalamacchia has three hits in this series. Pitching, the Marlins have the 18th best ERA at 3.86. Tom Koehler gets the nod, and he’s 5-6 with a 3.74 ERA and has 69 strikeouts in 91.1 innings. This is Koehler’s second career start against the Phillies.
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The Phillies have lost four of their last five games and are back to seven games below .500. The Phillies offense continues its inconsistencies, as it has produced two or fewer runs in three of their last five games. Ryan Howard does have 13 hits in his last 10 games and Marlon Byrd has scored three runs in this series. The Phillies pitching continues to give them a chance, as they have the 15th best ERA at 3.84. Cole Hamels takes the mound, and he’s 2-4 with a 2.76 ERA and has 84 strikeouts in 81.2 innings. Hamels is 9-12 with a 3.18 ERA in 30 career starts against the Marlins.
The Marlins are 6-2 in Koehler's last 8 starts with 4 days of rest and 9-4 in Koehler's last 13 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Phillies are 4-10 in Hamels' last 14 starts and 2-7 in Hamels' last 9 starts as a favorite. The Phillies are 1-5 in Hamels' last 6 starts vs. Marlins.
I have no choice but to back the Marlins in this spot. Hamels isn't the same pitcher he's been in the past, and the fish have improved lately on the road. There's value in the road team, which is also the better team of the two.