Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Pick, Odds, Prediction - 7/5/14
Milwaukee Brewers (51-35) at Cincinnati Reds (43-41)
MLB Baseball: Saturday, July 5, 2014 at 4:10 pm (Great American Ball Park)
Matt Garza (R) (5-5) (4.096) vs. Homer Bailey (R) (8-4) (4.386)
The Line: Cincinnati Reds -125 / Milwaukee Brewers +115 --- Over/Under: 7.5 See the Latest Odds
TV: FSN-WI, FSN-OH
The Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds meet Saturday afternoon at the great American Ballpark.
The Brewers have lost four straight games, but remain 15 above a .500 record. The Brewers pitching continues to be a little shaky, as they’ve allowed four or more runs in 10 of their last 13 games. Overall, the Brewers have a 3.67 ERA, which is 12th in baseball. Offensively, Ryan Braun has 10 RBI in his last eight games and Jonathan Lucroy has 13 hits in his last 10 games. Matt Garza gets the ball, and he’s 5-5 with a 4.10 ERA and has 81 strikeouts in 107.2 innings. Garza is 1-3 with a 5.45 ERA in seven career starts against the Reds.
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The Reds have won six of their last nine games and are three games above a .500 record. The Reds pitching has allowed three or less runs in eight of their last nine games. Overall, the Reds have a 3.54 ERA, which is eighth best in the majors. Offensively, the Reds continue to struggle, but Todd Frazier has hit safely in eight of his last nine games and Devin Mesoraco has homered four times in his last 10 games. Homer Bailey takes the hill, and he’s 8-4 with a 4.39 ERA and has 94 strikeouts in 104.2 innings. Bailey is 4-7 with a 5.24 ERA in 18 career starts against the Brewers.
The Brewers are 1-4 in Garzas last 5 road starts and 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Reds are 5-0 in Baileys last 5 home starts and 13-6 in Baileys last 19 starts with 5 days of rest. Reds are 4-1 in Baileys last 5 starts vs. Brewers, while the Brewers are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings in Cincinnati.
Garza hasn't been his best on the road this season, but I think everybody can agree the Brewers are the better overall team in this matchup. I look for them to snap their losing streak, and the plus money makes things even sweeter.