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Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Pick, Odds, Prediction 7/30/14

Arizona Diamondbacks (46-61) at Cincinnati Reds (53-53)

MLB Baseball: Wednesday, July 30, 2014 at 12:35 pm (Great American Ball Park)

Wade Miley (L) (6-7) (4.338) vs. Alfredo Simon (R) (12-5) (2.857)

The Line: Cincinnati Reds -108 / Arizona Diamondbacks -102 --- Over/Under: 7.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: MLB Network

The Diamondbacks and Reds play the rubber match of their series in an early game on MLB Network.

The Arizona Diamondbacks dropped last night’s game 3-0 as their nightmare season drags on.  The DBacks started so poorly out of the gate that the endless climb back to respectability has clearly worn this team down as the pitching has been the team’s primary downfall.  Trevor Cahill exemplified that phenomenon last night allowing runs in each of the first two innings and allowing the opposition to play comfortably with a lead.  The DBacks bats couldn’t generate any offense against Reds starter Mike Leake or relievers Jonathan Broxton and Aroldis Chapman as they were shut out on five hits for the game.  Arizona will look to exit Cincinnati with a series win as they send young lefty Wade Miley to the mound amidst what has been a lackluster follow-up season after strong campaigns in 2012 and 2013.  Miley was roughed up in Philadelphia in his latest start allowing six runs (five earned) on eight hits over five innings of work, but in the previous four starts before that Miley was starting to cook up some positive momentum in July allowing just six earned runs over 28 and 2/3 innings of work.  For the year Miley has a WHIP of 1.27 and ERA of 4.34 to go along with a 6-7 record.  Miley is actually at his best on the road and also in day games; The Diamondbacks are also a better road team than home team at 25-28 on the year.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Pick, Odds, Prediction 7/30/14


The Cincinnati Reds have been a train wreck coming out of the All-Star break with just two wins in 11 games, but Tuesday night’s win did bring them back to the .500 mark as they remain very much alive in Wild Card contention with the chance to improve their position once injured stars Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips return to action.  The Reds have still yet to eclipse the three run mark in the second half of the season, but on Tuesday night scoring three runs was enough as Mike Leake delivered a shutdown performance, even delivering an RBI single to complement RBI singles by Todd Frazier and Brayan Pena.   The Reds will look to lean on their pitching once again on Wednesday as they turn to 12 game winner Alfredo Simon.  Simon has been a pleasant surprise for the Reds this season with a WHIP of 1.10 and ERA of 2.86.  Simon hasn’t had his best of late though losing his last two starts while failing to last more than five innings in either start.  The Reds are 29-24 at Great American Ball Park on the season.

The Reds have the better starter going in this one but they’re actually the worse offensive team which explains the perplexing moneyline with the home team hardly even favored despite starting a 12 game winner.   I was hoping to catch some value on the visitor in this one but clearly there’s none.   I’ll update this pick before game time when more variables are known but for now it’s a lean to the under as both games thus far in this series have resulted in just three runs.

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Under 7.5 (1 unit)

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