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Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick, Odds, Prediction 7/31/14

Cincinnati Reds (53-54) at Miami Marlins (53-54)

MLB Baseball: Thursday, July 31, 2014 at 7:10 pm (Marlins Park)

Johnny Cueto (R) (11-6) (2.082) vs. Tom Koehler (R) (7-7) (3.909)

The Line: Miami Marlins +110 / Cincinnati Reds -120 --- Over/Under: 6.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: MLB Network, FSOH, FSFL

It’s a battle of teams with identical records in the National League as the Reds and Marlins square off from Miami.

The Cincinnati Reds dropped their latest series to the Diamondbacks as their second half misery continues.  The Reds are just 2-10 since the All-Star break and have scored more than three runs just once – in yesterday afternoon’s 5-4 loss as Devin Mesoraco hit a three run HR with two outs in the 9th inning.  Cincinnati was able to overcome a woeful day at the plate last time Johnny Cueto took the mound though, as their ace helped the team snap a seven game losing streak in his last start.  Cueto has been stellar all season with a WHIP of 0.93 and ERA of 2.08 to complement his 11-6 record.  Cueto is definitely a better pitcher at home, but his road numbers are still better than the vast majority of the league.   The Reds have yet to face the Marlins this season and enter this game with a 24-29 record on the road.

Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick, Odds, Prediction 7/31/14

USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Marlins are on a much different trajectory to sit at 53-54, entering this series with a 9-4 record thus far in the second half of the season.  The Marlins lost on 4-3 to the Nationals on Wednesday to snap a six game winning streak, but they nearly executed yet another late comeback scoring two runs in the ninth inning as an absence of quit seems to be defining this team right now.   While it could be tough to generate offense against Cueto, the Marlins can fall back on their strong home record of 30-25 as they send righty Tom Koehler to the mound for the series opener.   Koehler has been mediocre in June and July after a strong start to the season as he enters this game with a WHIP of 1.25 and ERA of 3.91 while posting a 7-7 record.   Koehler has been significantly better at home on the year though with an ERA of 2.75 across nine starts.

Cueto is as tough as they come on the mound but the Marlins are the team in form so I’m siding with the home dog.

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Miami Marlins +110 (1 unit)

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