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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets MLB Pick, Odds, Prediction 8/11/14

New York Mets (56-62) at Philadelphia Phillies (53-65)

MLB Baseball: Monday, August 11, 2014 at 1:05 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

Jonathon Niese (L) (5-8) (3.506) vs. David Buchanan (R) (6-5) (4.386)

The Line: Philadelphia Phillies +106 / New York Mets -116 --- Over/Under: 8 See the Latest Odds

TV: SNY, CSPh

The Mets and Phillies conclude their four game series with a day game on Monday afternoon.

The Mets appeared to be well on their to a third straight victory after taking a 6-1 lead after five innings, battering Kyle Kendrick with 10 hits including contributions from every player except the pitcher, but the wheels came off late in a 7-6 loss.  Zach Wheeler conceded two more runs in the 6th, Vic Black allowed two runs in the 7th, and Jenry Mejia blew the save and lost the game allowing two more runs in the 9th.  Despite the loss, the Mets are still 10-5 vs. the Phillies this season, including a 7-2 mark at Citizen’s Bank Park.   The Mets have been a poor scoring team on the year ranking 24th in the league in runs scored, but playing their regional and divisional rival seems to bring the best out of their offense. 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets MLB Pick, Odds, Prediction 8/11/14

USA TODAY Sports

New York will turn to Jonathon Niese for Monday’s finale in hopes of snapping his 0-4 losing streak in his last four starts.  The 27 year old lefty has been battered in July and August with a 6.04 ERA after starting the season with three solid months of work.   Niese is 1-0 in three starts against the Phillies this year, allowing a total of six earned runs over 21 innings for an ERA of 2.57.  For the season Niese has a WHIP of 1.28 and ERA of 3.51 while compiling a 5-8 record.  Marlon Byrd is batting .400 lifetime against Niese and Carlos Ruiz is batting .370, but the Phillies lefty power in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have struggled immensely with Howard at .167 and Utley at .107.

The Mets are 28-35 away from home on the season.

The Philadelphia Phillies had lost the opening two game of the series by one run, but they weren’t about to suffer that fate again as they completed the rally they couldn’t finish on Friday for a 7-6 win.  Chase Utley had a huge day falling a double short of the cycle while hitting a home run, two run triple, and scoring two runs and Ryan Howard hit the walk off single to score Marlon Byrd after going 0-4 before that at bat on the day.   While the Phillies won’t be playing after the regular season ends, any chance to stick it to a hated rival and induce excitement from the fans is a welcome event at this stage of the season. 

The Phillies will turn to David Buchanan in hopes of carrying Sunday’s momentum forward on Monday afternoon.   The 25 year old rookie right-hander has had mixed success so far this year, entering this matchup with a WHIP of 1.29, ERA of 4.39 and record of 6-5, factoring in the decision in all 11 starts.  In Buchanan’s lone start this year against the Mets on May 29th, the righty was tagged with the loss after allowing four runs (three earned) on seven hits across 6.2 innings of work.   Home field hasn't factored much in his output with an ERA of 4.36 across six starts, but the Phillies are 4-2 in those starts. The Phillies are 26-35 at home on the season. 

After Sunday's finish, the Phillies have the momentum, so despite the Mets owning the season series I think the home team digs deep again to get the win.

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Philadelphia Phillies +106 (1 unit)

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