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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - 6/29/15 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Milwaukee Brewers (29-48) at Philadelphia Phillies (26-50)

MLB Baseball: Monday, June 29, 2015 at 7:05 pm (Citizens Bank Park)

J Nelson (4-8) (4.43) vs. S O'Sullivan (1-5) (5.34)

The Line: Philadelphia Phillies +125 / Milwaukee Brewers -135 --- Over/Under: 8 See the Latest Odds

TV: FS-Wisconsin

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Milwaukee Brewers face off on Monday at Citizen’s bank Ballpark for game one of their MLB series of last place teams.

The Philadelphia Phillies have the worst record in baseball and they are buried in last place in the National League East. The Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 games, 18-21 at home, and they are 15.5 games back in the NL East. As a team the Phillies are hitting .241 with Ben Revere hitting .289, Freddy Galvis hitting .255, and Odubel Herrera hitting .251. The Phillies pitching staff has an ERA of 4.58 with the starters at 5.05 and the bullpen at 3.75. For game one against the Brewers the Phillies start Sean O’Sullivan who has allowed 74 hits and 36 earned runs while striking out 29 over 60.2 innings for a 1-5 record and a 5.34 ERA.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers - 6/29/15 MLB Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Brewers dug themselves into a hole with a poor start to the season and they have been trying to dig themselves out ever since. The Brewers are 5-5 in their last 10 games, 14-22 on the road, and they are 23 games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central standings. As a team the Brewers are hitting .238 with Adam Lind hitting .291, Gerrardo Parra hitting .290, and Jean Segura and Ryan Braun both hitting .259. The Brewers pitching staff has an ERA of 4.38 with the starters at 4.94 and the bullpen at 3.34. For game one against the Phillies the Brewers start Jimmy Nelson who has allowed 84 hits and 44 earned runs while striking out 75 over 91.1 innings for a 4-8 record and a 4.34 ERA.

Philadelphia is 18-37 in their last 55 games, 3-7 in their last 10 home games, and 4-1 in O’Sullivan’s last five starts. Milwaukee is 7-1 in game one of a series, 8-17 as a favorite, and 3-7 in Nelson’s last 10 road starts. Milwaukee has won five of their last six games in Philadelphia.

The odds here seem way out of whack as the Phillies are home and the Brewers are hardly world-beaters. Nelson is coming off of a big game but I am taking the big price on the Phils here. 

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Philadelphia Phillies +125

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