National League CY Young: MLB Odds, Pick, Predictions, Dark Horses - 3/7/16
March 7, 2016
The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
As we inch closer to the 2016 MLB season, it’s time to look at some props and future bets. One of those we’ll look into are predicting the 2016 National League Cy Young Award. There’s a ton of value out there, so let’s get started with some of the guys to include on your card this year.
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets - Jacob deGrom proved that his rookie season was no fluke, and he was rock solid for the Mets in the playoffs. deGrom had the eighth-best quality start percentage in the big leagues and averaged 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. deGrom now has 349 strikeouts in just 331.1 career innings and has allowed just 23 homers. Add the fact deGrom pitches in a division with three mediocre clubs, and odds of +1400 is one of the better value bets on the board.
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Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins - Jose Fernandez has pitched in just 19 games the last two seasons due to injuries. However, when healthy, Fernandez is one of the top pitchers in all of baseball. Fernandez is still averaging 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings throughout his career and has an ERA of 2.40 in 47 starts. Fernandez is also 17-0 with an ERA of 1.40 and 192 strikeouts in his career at Marlins Park. It really all comes down to health with Fernandez. Assuming Fernandez can put past injuries behind him, odds of +1200 are a steal, as he will be in the race at the end of the season if he can get 30-plus starts under his belt.
Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs - Jake Arrieta is the second favorite for the CY Young behind Clayton Kershaw. You’re still getting one of the top pitchers in the game and last year’s Cy Young Award winner with odds of +700. Last season, Arrieta allowed just 52 runs in 229 innings, putting him in elite company. In his last two seasons combined (58 starts), Arrieta has an ERA of 2.08. Expecting a season as good as last year’s may be a bit much, but it’s clear Arrieta has arrived as of the top pitchers in baseball. With the Cubs roster even better than last year, Arrieta is a wise investment to become a back-to-back CY Young winner.
Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals - Carlos Martinez is one of my favorite young pitchers in baseball, as the 24-year-old has ace potential. So, when I saw you can get Martinez with odds of +3300, I had to take a stab at it. Yes, Martinez is coming off a shoulder injury and may not be ready to begin the regular season, but a comeback won’t be far behind with him already throwing on the mound in spring training. Martinez has trimmed his ERA down in each of his three seasons and has improved his strikeout rate as well. Last season, Martinez had 12 outings in which he allowed one or less runs with at least six innings pitched. Martinez is certainly worth being considered a legit longshot this season.
Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates - Gerrit Cole finished fourth in the CY Young race last season and pitches for a team that’s made the postseason three straight years. Cole is striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings throughout his three-year career and is coming off his best ERA season of 2.60. Cole also bumped his strikeout total 64 batters from last season in just 70 more innings. Cole has the resume and plays on a solid team to make another run at the Cy Young. I’ll take a shot with the odds of +1700.