Nationals vs. Dodgers - 10/7/16 MLB Game One NLDS Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Los Angeles Dodgers (91-71) at Washington Nationals (95-67)
MLB Baseball: Friday, October 7, 2016 at 5:30 pm (Nationals Park)
C Kershaw (12-4) (1.63) vs. M Scherzer (20-7) (2.96)
The Line: Washington Nationals +120 / Los Angeles Dodgers -130 --- Over/Under: 6 See the Latest Odds
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals meet Friday afternoon for game one of the NLDS on FS1.
The Los Angeles Dodgers won the NL West and are in the postseason for the fourth straight year for the first time in franchise history. The Dodgers got here with a pitching staff that has the fifth best ERA in baseball (3.70) and the second best opponents batting average (.233). Offensively, the Dodgers can’t be overlooked either, as Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Turner combined for 180 RBI while Corey Seager is a star in the making and has 31 hits since the month of September. The Los Angeles Dodgers have the combination of hitting and elite pitching you need to succeed in October and may be the most dangerous team out there. As for this game, Clayton Kershaw gets the ball, and he was 12-4 with a 1.69 ERA and 172 strikeouts this season. Kershaw is 2-6 with a 4.59 ERA and 77 strikeouts in his postseason career.
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The Washington Nationals are in the postseason for the third time since 2012 and hope to finally make some noise after winning the NL East. The Nationals are also here due to a pitching staff that has the second best ERA at 3.51 and finished second in strikeouts with 1,476. Offensively, the Nats were eighth with 763 runs scored and have six players with at least 20 home runs. Daniel Murphy proved to be one of the top hitters in baseball, Bryce Harper is a game changer when he steps to the plate and Jayson Werth heated up at the right time with 19 hits in his last 90 at bats. The Washington Nationals hope this is the year after never making it out of the division series since moving from Montreal. For this game, Max Scherzer takes the hill, and he was 20-7 with a 2.96 ERA and 284 strikeouts this season. Scherzer is 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA and 80 strikeouts in his postseason career.
We're getting the guy who will probably win the NL Cy Young at home with plus money. You have to take that based on the value. Sure, I know Kershaw is an automatic bet most nights, but he's historically awful in the postseason, which includes allowing 33 earned runs in 64.2 innings of work. Kershaw also has just five starts under his belt since July and has an ERA of 2.31 on the road compared to an ERA of 1.08 at home. Scherzer has been a rock all season long and has an ERA of 2.56 at home with 134 strikeouts in 102 innings of work.
But this bet is mainly fading Keshaw in big moments where he always chokes. I'll take the value and back the Nats at home.