Indians at Red Sox - 10/10/16 MLB ALDS Game Three Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Cleveland Indians (95-67) at Boston Red Sox (93-70)
MLB Baseball: Monday, October 10, 2016 at 6:05 pm (Fenway Park)
J Tomlin (13-9) (4.40) vs. C Buchholz (8-10) (4.86)
The Line: Boston Red Sox -138 / Cleveland Indians +128 --- Over/Under: 9.5 See the Latest Odds
The Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox play game three of the ALDS Monday at Fenway Park on TBS.
The Cleveland Indians would get to their first ALCS with a victory here that would complete the sweep. The Indians offense is very confident right now, as they produced 11 runs and have six batters with at least two hits in the first two games. Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez have combined for eight hits and three RBI, while Lonnie Chisenhall has four RBI in eight at bats. The Indians are also doing a good job of striking early, producing eight combined runs in the first three innings. The Cleveland Indians have now won eight straight games when scoring more than three runs. Pitching wise, Josh Tomlin gets the nod, and he was 13-9 with a 4.40 ERA and 118 strikeouts this season. This will be Tomlin’s first career postseason game.
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The Boston Red Sox need a victory here in order to force a game four. The Red Sox pitching staff hasn’t done them many favors, as their two aces were tagged for five earned runs each and Boston has now lost six straight games when allowing more than three runs. However, the Red Sox are coming off a game in which they were shutout and had just three hits. The Red Sox have also struck out a combined 22 times. The Boston Red Sox have simply been outplayed in the first two games and need something quickly to boost their confidence. For this game, Clay Buchholz takes the hill, and he was 8-10 with a 4.78 ERA and 93 strikeouts this season. Buchholz is 0-0 with a 4.21 ERA and 20 strikeouts in his postseason career.
I refuse to think that the Red Sox are going to get swept, as Boston has the best offense in the league and usually puts up big numbers in its little park. Boston is likely going to break out of its slump offensively and give Buchholz some run support. However, there are concerns, as Buchholz does have an ERA of 5.60 at home and Fenway is where seven of his 10 losses have taken place. Tomlin has also been sharp, allowing just five combined earned runs in his last five starts. Although to be fair, Buchholz has allowed just three earned runs in his last 19 innings.
At the end of the day, I'm going to back the Red Sox at home because of their offense in this spot. It's only a matter of time before this offense breaks out. It has no choice but to happen here. I don't trust Buchholz in any situation, but I do have a lot of faith in that Red Sox offense.
The Boston Red Sox manage to see another day.