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Giants vs. Cubs - 10/10/16 MLB NLDS Game Three Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Chicago Cubs (105-58-1) at San Francisco Giants (88-77)

MLB Baseball: Monday, October 10, 2016 (AT&T Park)

J Arrieta (18-8) (3.10) vs. M Bumgarner (16-9) (2.67)

The Line: San Francisco Giants -123 / Chicago Cubs +113 --- Over/Under: 6 See the Latest Odds

TV: FS1

The Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants play game three of the NLDS Monday at AT&T Park on FS1.

The Chicago Cubs would advance to their second straight NLCS with a big road victory here. The Cubs pitching staff has been the story of this series, as Chicago has allowed just two runs while striking out 12 batters and allowing 12 hits. The Chicago Cubs have now won nine straight games when allowing three or less runs. Offensively, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant have combined for five hits and two RBI while Kyle Hendricks has two RBI and one hit. The scary part for opponents is that the Cubs offense has yet to get rolling in the playoffs the way it’s capable of producing. For this game, Jake Arrieta gets the ball, and he was 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 190 strikeouts this season. Arrieta is 2-1 with a 3.66 ERA and 28 strikeouts in his postseason career.

Giants vs. Cubs - 10/10/16 MLB NLDS Game Three Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco Giants need a victory here if they’re going to force a game four on Tuesday. The Giants offense has been nonexistent in this series and has now scored three or less runs in 13 of their last 18 games. Angel Pagan and Conor Gillaspie have combined for six hits and three RBI in three playoff games, but the rest of the team has really struggled. The Giants need guys like Brandon Belt and Buster Posey to come up with a spark before this series ends. Of course, struggles aren’t anything new for this team, as the San Francisco Giants were dreadful for much of the second half and it starts with an offense that has underachieved nearly all year long. Pitching wise, Madison Bumgarner takes the hill, and he was 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA and 251 strikeouts this season. Bumgarner is 8-3 with a 1.94 ERA and 83 strikeouts in his postseason career.

The Cubs are 19-7 in their last 26 games following an off day and 39-13 in Arrietas last 52 starts. The Giants are 3-8 in their last 11 games following an off day and 6-2 in Bumgarners last 8 starts. The Cubs are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall.

Getting Arrieta at plus money is a bargain given what he's capable of and the fact this current Giants lineup is batting a career .200 against him. However, betting against Bumgarner in the postseason just isn't a wise move as he proved yet again against the New York Mets. In his last 23 postseason innings, Bumgarner has allowed zero runs, 10 hits and struck out 18 batters. The Giants have also won six straight postseason games in which Bumgarner has pitched. Not to mention Arrieta is coming off a game in which he allowed seven runs and his road ERA of 3.59 is a lot different than his home ERA of 2.62. 

Don't bet against Bumgarner in the postseason. It's a betting law. 

Giants win and see another day. 

 

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San Francisco Giants -123

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