Rafael Cavalcante vs. Patrick Cummins MMA Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 8/1/15
Patrick Cummins (7-2) vs. Rafael Cavalcante (12-5)
MMA: Saturday, August 1, 2015 at 10:00 pm (Rio de Janeiro)
The Line: Cavalcante +145 / Cummins -185 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: FOX Sports 1
Rafael Cavalcante and Patrick Cummins fight Saturday night in Rio de Janeiro at UFC 190.
Rafael Cavalcante enters this fight with a 12-5 record and 100 percent of his wins have come by knockout. Cavalcante has lost two of his last three fights and is coming off a June 2014 loss to Ryan Bader. Cavalcante is averaging 3.21 significant strikes per minute and an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Cavalcante is averaging 0.82 takedowns and an accuracy percentage of 44.4 percent. Cavalcante is great at moving forward, as he has very powerful punches and violent knees, as all of his wins have come by punches/knees. Cavalcante’s weakness has been his cardio, as he’s lost three of his four bouts that have gone past the second round. This will be Cavalcante’s fifth fight in Brazil, his home country.
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Patrick Cummins enters this fight with a 7-2 record and 43 percent of his wins have come by knockout. Cummins has won three of his last four fights but is coming off a April loss to Ovince Saint Preux. Cummins is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 58.5 percent. Cummins is averaging 6.18 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Cummins is one of the better wrestlers in the lightweight heavyweight division and is super aggressive with his takedowns, while also having a takedown defense of 75 percent. Cummins weakness is on his feet, as he does leave holes in his defense and can be taken advantage of at times. This is Cummins’ second fight in Brazil and second out of the United States.
Anytime we have an aggressive fighter who wants to stand up against a fighter who wants to play on the canvas, I take the guy with the ground game. Cummins will get Cavalcante to fight his fight, and I don’t like his chances.
Look for Durkin to get the victory.