Josh Barnett vs. Roy Nelson MMA Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 9/26/15
Roy Nelson vs. Josh Barnett
MMA: Sunday, September 26, 2015 at 10:00 pm (Saitama Super Arena)
The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: FOX Sports 1
Josh Barnett and Roy Nelson fight Saturday night in Japan at UFC Fight Night.
Josh Barnett enters this fight with a 33-7 record and is winning 55 percent of his fights by submission. Barnett has split his last four fights and is coming off a 2013 loss to Travis Browne. Barnett is averaging 2.79 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46.5 percent. Barnett is averaging 1.47 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 57.1 percent. Barnett is a solid defensive striker who is defending nearly 60 percent of his strikes. Barnett is also a grappler first and knows how to finish a fight quickly, as five of his last seven wins are by submission. The concern is that we haven’t seen Barnett in close to two full years, and he is quickly approaching 38 years old. This will be Barnett’s 17th time fighting in Japan.
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Roy Nelson enters this fight with a 21-11 record and is winning 67 percent of his fights by knockout. Nelson has lost four of his last five fights and is coming off a March loss to Alistair Overeem. Nelson is averaging 2.17 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 33.1 percent. Nelson is averaging 0.52 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 15.6 percent. Nelson is still raw power and either produces swinging for the fenches, or he usually loses the fight. Nelson’s last 11 wins have come by knockout and he always has the advantage when standing up. The problem is that Nelson is 39 years old and runs out of stamina quickly if a bout goes past the first round. This will be Nelson’s second time fighting in Japan.
Although we haven’t seen Barnett in a while, he clearly has the advantage in this fight as he’s the more balanced fighter. Nelson is all power but won’t be able to hold his own if this fight goes to the canvas. Also, Barnett has only been knocked out twice in his lengthy career.
Give me Barnett for the victory.