Paddy Holohan vs. Louis Smolka UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 10/24/15
Louis Smolka vs. Paddy Holohan
UFC: Saturday, October 24, 2015 at 1:00 pm (3Arena)
The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: UFC Fight Pass
Paddy Holohan and Louis Smolka fight Saturday night at UFC Fight Night 76 at the 3Arena.
Paddy Holohan enters this fight with a 12-1-1 record and is winning 67 percent of his fights by submission. Holohan has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a July win over Vaughan Lee. Holohan is averaging 2.2 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 47.5 percent. Holohan is averaging 2.18 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Holohan is a high risk high reward fighter, as he’s more than willing to take chances and land that big strike and flying leg kick. Still, it’s worked for him, as Holohan was able to win his last two decisions. The concern with Holohan is that he can put himself in dangerous situations once he finds himself on the canvas. This will be Holohan’s 11th fight in Ireland, his home country.
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Louis Smolka enters this fight with a 9-1 record and is winning 44 percent of his fights by submission. Smolka has won his last two fights and is coming off a July win over Neil Seery. Smolka is averaging 4.05 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 42.2 percent. Smolka is averaging 2.17 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 34.7 percent. Smolka is a long, athletic striker who can attack from long range and is quick on the canvas. Smolka is a balanced fighter who is comfortable on his feet or back, and he’s quickly on the rise at just 24 years old. The concern is that three of Smolka’s last four fights have been left up to the judges, as he has to learn to put his opponent away. This will be Smolka’s sixth career fight outside of the United States.
This fight is as close to a toss-up as you’re going to find, as both fighters can hold their own in many areas. And while Holohan may get a little crazy at times, he’s also more than capable of landing that big strike that ends a fight.
In a toss-up, I’m siding with the crowd favorite in Holohan.