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Jared Rosholt vs. Roy Nelson UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 2/6/16

Roy Nelson vs. Jared Rosholt

UFC: Saturday, February 6, 2016 (MGM Grand Garden Arena)

The Line: Roy Nelson -160 / Jared Rosholt +140 Over/Under: 1.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: FS1

Roy Nelson and Jared Rosholt fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 82 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.

Roy Nelson enters this fight with a 21-12 record and has won 67 percent of his fights by knockout. Nelson has lost five of his last six fights and is coming off a September loss to Josh Barnett. Nelson is averaging 2.21 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 35.2 percent. Nelson is averaging 0.8 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 21.4 percent. Nelson enters this fight in terrible form and is probably on his way out of the sport as he turns 40 in July. Nelson is still a strong striker who has a great right hand that features knockout power. However, Nelson hasn’t looked sharp at all over the years and has a limited wrestling game. Nelson has fought much of his career in Las Vegas, his home city.

Jared Rosholt vs. Roy Nelson UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 2/6/16

USA TODAY Sports

Jared Rosholt enters this fight with a 14-2 record and is winning 50 percent of his fights by decision. Rosholt has won his last three fights and is coming off a November win over Stefan Struve. Rosholt is averaging 2.03 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 51.3 percent. Rosholt is averaging 2.13 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 44.8 percent. Rosholt is a very accruacte striker who has been very consistent ever since joining the UFC. Rosholt is also a solid defender who is defending 63.6 percent of his takedowns. Rosholt has a chance to continue climbing up the rankings if he can snag his fourth straight victory. This will be Rosholt’s second fight in Las Vegas.

I’m not sure how anybody can lay chalk with Nelson in this fight considering the guy is in brutal form. Rosholt probably should be the favorite in this fight considering his form, youth and his far better striking game.

However, this line smells fishy to me. So, I’m siding with the over 1.5 rounds. Both guys last two fights have ended in decision and neither has great knockout power. I’ll take the over in terms of rounds to avoid the fishy line.

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Over 1.5 Rounds

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