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Derek Brunson vs. Roan Carneiro UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 2/21/16

Roan Carneiro vs. Derek Brunson

UFC: Sunday, February 21, 2016 (Consol Energy Center)

The Line: Derek Brunson -370 / Roan Carneiro +310 Over/Under: 2.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: FS1

Derek Brunson and Roan Carneiro fight Sunday night at UFC Fight Night 83 in the Consol Energy Center.

Derek Brunson enters this fight with a 14-3 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Brunson has won his last three fights and is coming off a August win over Sam Alvey. Brunson is averaging 2.71 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 44.7 percent. Brunson is averaging 3.82 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Brunson is a wrestler at heart who is averaging nearly four takedowns and is defending 100 percent of his takedowns as well. Brunson has an impressive left hand and can land good strikes, but he’s very dangerous when getting a fight to the canvas. Two of Brunson’s three losses have been knockouts, so he can’t fight this standing up. This is Brunson’s first fight in Pennsylvania.

Derek Brunson vs. Roan Carneiro UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 2/21/16

USA TODAY Sports

Roan Carneiro enters this fight with a 20-9 record and is winning 45 percent of his fights by submission. Carneiro has won his last six fights and is coming off a February win over Mark Muñoz. Carneiro is averaging 1.38 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 53.5 percent. Carneiro is averaging 4.2 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Carneiro is also an aggressive grappler who is always looking to take the fight to the canvas, and he’s also defending 100 percent of his takedowns. Carneiro has won four of his last six fights by submission, all four which came in the first round. The concern is that Carneiro has a very limited striking game despite impressive accuracy. This will be Carneiro’s first fight in Pennsylvania.

This will be an interesting fight between two guys who want to wrestle their way to victory and have never been taken down by an opponent. Something has to give here.

However, when it’s all said and done, Brunson is the better fighter, a little more balanced and fresher as well as younger. Carneiro is just way too nondimensional.

I like Brunson to get a big victory.

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Derek Brunson

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