Dan Kelly vs. Antonio Carlos Jr. UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 3/19/16
Antonio Carlos Jr. vs. Dan Kelly
UFC: Saturday, March 19, 2016 (Brisbane Entertainment Centre)
The Line: Daniel Kelly +425 / Antonio Carlos Junior -550 Over/Under: 1.5 See the Latest Odds
Dan Kelly and Antonio Carlos Jr. fight Saturday at the Brisbane Entertainment Centre.
Dan Kelly enters this fight with a 10-1 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by submission. Kelly has split his last two fights and is coming off a November win over Steve Montgomery. Kelly is averaging 4.28 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 41.1 percent. Kelly is averaging 2.55 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Kelly has an impressive record, but truly the only noteworthy person he beat was Luke Zachrich in 2014. It will be interesting to see how Kelly performs against a bigger named fighter. Kelly has an Olympic background in Judo and has won five of his last eight fights by submission. Kelly has fought most of his career in Australia, which is his home country.
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Antonio Carlos Jr. enters this fight with a 6-1 record and has won 83 percent of his fights by submission. Carlos has won four of his last six fights and is coming off a December no contest to Kevin Casey. Carlos is averaging 1.61 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 39.7 percent. Carlos is averaging 3.35 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 62.5 percent. Carlos will be well rested for this fight considering his last real bout was in June of 2015. Carlos is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is very successful with his takedowns, which includes four victories by submission. The concern for Carlos is that he’s not the most accurate striker in the world and doesn’t land a lot of strikes, period. This will be Carlos’ first fight in Australia.
Kelly has a lot of showing and proving to do before anybody can expect him to beat a fighter of Carlos’ level. Carlos is simply the better fighter and will have a huge advantage once this fight goes to the canvas. The only thing Kelly has going for him here is the fact the fight is in Australia.
Look for Carlos to win this fight rather easily.