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Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Derrick Lewis UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 4/10/16

Derrick Lewis vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

UFC: Sunday, April 10, 2016 (Arena Zagreb)

The Line: Gabriel Gonzaga +160 / Derrick Lewis -185 Over/Under: 1.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: FS1

Gabriel Gonzaga and Derrick Lewis fight Sunday in UFC Fight Night 86 at the Arena Zagreb.

Gabriel Gonzaga enters this fight with a 17-10 record and has won 53 percent of his fights by knockout. Gonzaga has split his last eight fights and is coming off a December win over Konstantin Erokhin. Gonzaga is averaging 2.16 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 44.8 percent. Gonzaga is averaging 2.79 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 41.5 percent. Gonzaga has proven to be a rather balanced fighter with seven victories by knockout and nine fights by submission. Gonzaga is defending 58 percent of his opponent's strikes and is very comfortable on the canvas with a strong background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. The concern with Gonzaga is that he’s prone to strikes, as eight of his 10 losses have been knockouts. This will be Gonzaga’s first fight in Croatia.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Derrick Lewis UFC Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 4/10/16

USA TODAY Sports

Derrick Lewis enters this fight with a 14-4 record and has won 93 percent of his fights by knockout. Lewis has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a February win over Damian Grabowski. Lewis is averaging 3.95 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 59 percent. Lewis is averaging 1.24 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33.3 percent. Lewis is an extremely accurate striker, and his last 11 victories have come by knockout. Lewis simply knows how to win fights standing up and also has cardio that allows him to go longer than you’d expect. The concern with Lewis is that he has a questionable takedown defense and struggles on the canvas overall. This will be Lewis’ first fight in Croatia.

Usually I like to side with the guy who has a better ground game rather than picking the guy who relies solely on strikes. However, Gonzaga has been knocked out countless times and struggles big time against power strikers. Well, it doesn’t get much better than Lewis.

Look for Lewis to win his third straight fight.

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Derrick Lewis

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