T.J. Dillashaw vs. Raphael Assuncao UFC 200 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 7/9/16
Assuncao vs. Dillashaw
UFC: Saturday, July 9, 2016 (T-Mobile Arena)
The Line Assuncao +320 / Dillashaw -390 -- Over/Under: 2.5 See the Latest Odds
T.J. Dillashaw and Raphael Assuncao fight Saturday night during UFC 200 at the T-Mobile Arena.
T.J. Dillashaw enters this fight with a 12-3 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Dillashaw has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a January loss to Dominick Cruz. Dillashaw is averaging 55.6 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 40.8 percent. Dillashaw is averaging 1.56 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 34 percent. Dillashaw is coming off a tough split decision loss and hasn’t lost back-to-back fights in his career. Dillashaw doesn’t need much of an introduction, as he’s a balanced fighter with knockout power and comfortability on the canvas. Dillashaw was only clearly beat once, which was a 2011 knockout to John Dodson. This will be Dillashaw’s third fight in Las Vegas.
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Raphael Assuncao enters this fight with a 23-4 record and has won 43 percent of his fights by submission. Assuncao has won his last seven fights and is coming off a 2014 win over Bryan Caraway. Assuncao is averaging 3.45 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Assuncao is averaging 1.83 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35.7 percent. Assuncao hasn’t lost a fight in over five years but has been out of the octagon for a year and a half due to an ankle injury. It will be interesting to see how much rust there is and if Assuncao can return to form. When healthy, Assuncao is the ultimate grinder who almost always has the advantage on the canvas and simply knows how to win at all costs. This will be Assuncao’s third fight in Las Vegas.
Dillashaw has to be looking forward to this fight after losing the 2013 match back in 2013 by split decision. You have to like his chances heading into this match simply due to Assuncao being out of the sport for such a long time.
I have no idea what we’re going to get from Assuncao, which is why I’m siding with Dillashaw for the bounce back victory.