Matt Brown vs. Jake Ellenberger UFC 201 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 7/30/16
Ellenberger vs. Brown
UFC: Saturday, July 30, 2016 (Philips Arena)
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Matt Brown and Jake Ellenberger fight Saturday night on UFC 201 at the Philips Arena.
Matt Brown enters this fight with a 22-14 record and has won 59 percent of his fights by knockout. Brown has split his last six fights and is coming off a May loss to Demian Maia. Brown is averaging 3.61 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Brown is averaging 1.7 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 48.9 percent. Brown enters this fight in poor form with losses in three of his last four fights, including a submission loss a couple of months ago. When fighting well, Brown is one of the more powerful strikers in the welterweight division and has won five of his last six fights by knockout. Brown is also a polished grappler who has a high takedown percentage throughout his career. This will be Brown’s third fight in Atlanta.
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Jake Ellenberger enters this fight with a 30-11 record and has won 67 percent of his fights by knockout. Ellenberger has lost five of his last six fights and is coming off a January loss to Tarec Saffiedine. Ellenberger is averaging 2.3 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 37.7 percent. Ellenberger is averaging 2.16 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 51.1 percent. Ellenberger enters this fight in downright brutal form, as he’s lost six of his last nine matches and has been knocked out in three of those. Ellenberger is a very accomplished fighter who has a deep wrestling background and has clear knockout power. However, it's been awhile since Ellenberger has looked sharp in the octagon. This will be Ellenberger’s first fight in Atlanta.
Good luck picking a winner here with both guys looking sloppy as of late. However, Brown has been in better form overall and has a clear size advantage over Ellenberger, which includes a four-inch reach advantage. I’m simply not going to back somebody who has lost five of their last six fights.
Give me Brown in this toss-up matchup as more of a fade from Ellenberger.