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Brad Pickett vs. Iuri Alcantara UFC 204 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 10/8/16

Alcantara vs. Pickett

UFC: Saturday, October 8, 2016 (Manchester Arena)

The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: FS1

Brad Pickett and Iuri Alcantara fight late Saturday night during UFC 204 at the Manchester Arena.

Brad Pickett enters this fight with a 26-11 record and has won 38 percent of his fights by submission. Pickett has lost four of his last six fights and is coming off a February win over Francisco Rivera. Pickett is averaging 3.15 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 31 percent. Pickett is averaging 2.65 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 43.6 percent. Pickett has hit a rough patch in his career as he just turned 38 years old, and he’ll look for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2012. When in good form, Pickett is an effective takedown artist with the ability to finish fights on the canvas. Pickett also has knockout power in his strikes, but he’s produced just one knockout victory since 2009. Pickett has fought much of his career in England, his birthplace.

Brad Pickett vs. Iuri Alcantara UFC 204 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 10/8/16

USA TODAY Sports

Iuri Alcantara enters this fight with a 32-7 record and has won 41 percent of his fights by knockout. Alcantara has won four of his last six fights and is coming off a January loss to Jimmie Rivera. Alcantara is averaging 2.49 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 46.9 percent. Alcantara is averaging 1.46 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 70 percent. Alcantara could also use a statement performance after losing two of his last three fights and having his last four end in decision for better or worse. Alcantara is a striker at heart who lands accurate and powerful blows, but his takedown ability can’t be underestimated and he does have 12 career wins by submission. This will be Alcantara’s first fight in England. This will also be the sixth time Alcantara fights outside of his home in Brazil.

This should be an entertaining fight between two balanced guys who have proven they can win standing up or on the canvas. However, I give the edge to Pickett because he’s the more polished grappler and would have the advantage if this fight was to go to the canvas. Pickett would also be the heavy crowd favorite and hasn’t lost many fights when in England. Alcantara is going to be out of his comfort zone and is likely to struggle.

I like Pickett putting together two straight victories for the first time in four years.

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Brad Pickett

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