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Derrick Lewis vs. Marcin Tybura UFC Fight Night 97 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 10/15/16

UFC: Saturday, October 15, 2016 (Mall of Asia Arena)

The Line: Tybura +150 / Lewis -170 -- Over/Under: 1.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: UFC Fight Pass

Derrick Lewis and Marcin Tybura fight Saturday during UFC Fight Night 97 at the Mall of Asia Arena.

Derrick Lewis enters this fight with a 16-4 record and has won 88 percent of his fights by knockout. Lewis has won his last four fights and is coming off a July win over Roy Nelson. Lewis is averaging 3.52 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 57.9 percent. Lewis is averaging 0.8 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33.3 percent. Lewis is fresh off a close fight that ended in a split decision and it was the first time since his 2010 match against Rakim Cleveland where it didn’t end in knockout. There’s no surprises with Lewis, as he’s all power and lands a high percentage to go along with his 79 inch reach. If you can’t get Lewis on the canvas, he’s going to have the advantage against nearly anybody you put him up against. This will be Lewis’ first fight in the Philippines.

Derrick Lewis vs. Marcin Tybura UFC Fight Night 97 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 10/15/16

USA TODAY Sports

Marcin Tybura enters this fight with a 14-2 record and has won 43 percent of his fights by knockout. Tybura has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a August win over Viktor Pesta. Tybura is averaging 3.02 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 38.6 percent. Tybura is averaging 0.72 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33.3 percent. Tybura is now 1-1 in his UFC career and has a chance to get the biggest victory of his career yet at 30 years old. Tybura is a big guy who has a leg reach of 46 inches and simply knows how to finish fights. In fact, only two of Tybura’s 14 victories have ended in decision. Tybura has a powerful striking attack but is also polished on the canvas and would have the advantage if the fight goes there. This will be Tybura’s first fight in the Philippines.

There’s great value with Tybura and the plus money considering he’s the more balanced fighter and would have the advantage if he’s able to takedown Lewis. However, Lewis’ power and striking ability is always the x-factor and makes him tough to bet against. Tybura may have more ways to win, but Lewis has the quickest and most effective way to get it done. One good punch from The Black Beast and this thing is all over. Tybura has also been knocked out once in his career, which was against Stephan Puetz in 2015.

I like the value with Tybura, but I have to side with Lewis to win his fifth straight fight.

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Derrick Lewis

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