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Louis Smolka vs. Ray Borg UFC 207 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 12/30/16

Borg vs. Smolka

UFC: Saturday, December 30, 2016 (T-Mobile Arena)

The Line: Smolka +110 / Borg -130 -- Over/Under: 2.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: PPV

Louis Smolka and Ray Borg fight Friday night during UFC 207 at the T-Mobile Arena.

Louis Smolka enters this fight with a 11-2 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by submission. Smolka has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off an October loss to Brandon Moreno. Smolka is averaging 4.86 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 49.9 percent. Smolka is averaging 2.35 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 37.5 percent. Smolka is coming off a tough loss in which he was forced to tap, and now he hopes to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Smolka is one of the more accurate strikers in his division and is also very creative when taking the fight to the canvas. Only two of Smolka’s 11 wins have ended in decision and his balanced offensive attack makes him a tough match for his opponents. This will be Smolka’s second fight in Las Vegas.

Louis Smolka vs. Ray Borg UFC 207 Pick, Preview, Odds, Prediction - 12/30/16

USA TODAY Sports

Ray Borg enters this fight with a 9-2 record and has won 67 percent of his fights by submission. Borg has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a February loss to Justin Scoggins. Borg is averaging 1.31 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50.9 percent. Borg is averaging 3.74 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 57.6 percent. Borg has also never lost back-to-back fights in his career and both of his losses have ended in decisions. Borg is an accurate striker, but he’s most effective when he gets a fight to the canvas where four of his last five victories have ended in submission. Borg will want this fight on the canvas where he can wear down his opponent and set up a rear-naked choke. This will be Borg’s second fight in Las Vegas.

This is going to be an interesting fight between two guys who know how to finish things before a decision and have never lost two fights in a row. Borg also has to like his chances given that he’s never lost outside of a decision. However, the difference in this matchup for me is the striking ability of Smolka and the fact he has a five-inch reach advantage over Borg. Smolka can hold his own on the ground game, but I’m not sure The Tazmexican Devil can trade shots with Smolka if this fight is standing up.

I’ll side with Smolka and the slight plus money.

Louis Smolka

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