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Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets - 11/25/13

Denver Nuggets (6-6) at Dallas Mavericks (9-5)

NBA Basketball: Monday, November 25, 2013 at 8:30 pm (American Airlines Center)

The Line: Dallas Mavericks -5.5 -- Over/Under: 212 See the Latest Odds

TV:

The Dallas Mavericks look for payback as they host the Denver Nuggets on Monday night to close their home-and-home series.

Head to head, the Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Dallas while the underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Mavericks are 12-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, 41-20 ATS in their last 61 games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Nuggets on the other hand are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall, but just  3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. Western Conference.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets - 11/25/13

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

If the Dallas Mavericks could play all of their games at home, they would probably be the best team in the NBA. Following their 102-100 loss in Denver on Saturday night, the Mavericks dropped to 2-5 on the road for the season, compared to their perfect 7-0 mark at home. In fairness to Dallas, their five road losses have all come against likely playoff teams expect for maybe Denver, who they nearly beat despite trailing by as many as 17 points early in the contest. At home however, the Mavericks have been nearly unbeatable as they have been lighting up the scoreboard through the first month of action, averaging 111 points on 50 percent shooting in their seven wins thus far.

I was ready to call the Denver Nuggets a lottery team this season, but I may have spoken to quickly. Given the offseason they had and the way they started this season, all the signs were there for them to potentially miss out on a playoff spot, however, things have turned around quickly in the Mile High City. After holding off a late Mavericks rally on Saturday night, Denver has now won five of their last seven to improve to .500 for the first time this season. All of a sudden, the Nuggets look like the same high scoring team from a year ago as they have averaged 108.7 points per game over their last six outings.

As good as the Nuggets have played recently, it’s hard to look past Dallas in this one. Apart from their game against Houston last week, they have looked downright dominate at home all season long, scoring whenever they please. There’s also the revenge factor from their defeat in Denver over the weekend. I could see the Nuggets keeping this close, but I think the Mavs pull away in the end and get the cover, but just...

Dan’s Pick: Dallas -5.5

Follow me on Twitter @Dan_SCP

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