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Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets - 12/6/13

Denver Nuggets (11-7) at Boston Celtics (8-12)

NBA Basketball: Friday, December 6, 2013 at 7:30 pm (TD Garden)

The Line: Boston Celtics +4.5 -- Over/Under: 200.5 See the Latest Odds


The Boston Celtics square off against the Denver Nuggets on Friday night from TD Garden.

Head to head, the Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Boston while the home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings and the favorite is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above 600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. The Nuggets on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets - 12/6/13

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

When I first looked at this game, the over jumped out at me straight away and it’s stuck ever since. The over has hit in just seven of Boston’s 20 games so far this season, however, it has gone 5-4 in their nine home games to date. Looking a little closer, they have scored 103 or over in two of their last three at TD Garden and they were against Cleveland and Milwaukee, two teams who play at a pretty slow pace. While the Celtics are still a below average offensive team, they have shown they can at least put up some decent totals at home.

Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets are coming off a loss in Cleveland on Tuesday night where they scored just 88 points, but that’s not going to put me off because they were bound to drop a game sooner rather than later, having won seven straight before the Cavaliers loss. In their two prior games, Denver had put up 111 and 112 points, respectively, and have averaged a whopping 109 per game over their last 11. The Nuggets like to push the pace at all costs and scoring is clearly not a problem for this team.

While I wouldn’t go dropping a huge sum of money on the over because we are still talking about the Boston Celtics here, but I think this is one of the stronger plays on the board for tonight. Boston has shown that scoring 100 points is a pretty achievable goal when playing at home and it doesn’t really matter who or where the Nuggets play because more often that not, the total is going over 200 points....

Dan’s Pick: Over 200

Follow me on Twitter @Dan_SCP


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