Sacramento Kings vs. Miami Heat - 12/27/13
Miami Heat (22-6) at Sacramento Kings (8-19)
NBA Basketball: Friday, December 27, 2013 at 10:00 pm (Sleep Train Arena)
The Line: Sacramento Kings +7.5 -- Over/Under: 209 See the Latest Odds
Lebron James and the Miami Heat square off against the Sacramento Kings on Friday night from Sleep Train Arena.
Head to head, the Heat are 21-5 ATS in the last 26 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Sacramento while the favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, but just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Heat on the other hand are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, but just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
If recent meetings are anything to go by, then the over has to be the play here. These two teams met just over a week ago and the total finished on 225. While 225 points is quite a lot, know that the last five times these two have faced off, the total points averaged over those five has been a whopping 232. That averaged is helped greatly by last year's 141-129 overtime decision in Miami, but still. I dare you to find me five recent meetings between any two combination of teams that has a higher average total points over their last five meetings than these two.
As far as individual results go, the Heat have been clicking on all cylinders on offense lately as the have averaged 112 points over their last six. While the Kings have averaged a pretty decent 103.7 points over their last four outings, they have also given up an average of 115 in those four games.
It's hard to look past Miami when picking a side in this game, but you just never know with this Kings squad do you. While they have recent home losses to Utah and New Orleans, they also have a pair of 15-point victories over Dallas and Houston. Go figure.
There's no doubt these two teams are due for a low scoring game one of these days, but I say we keep riding this train until that day comes. Considering they have averaged a total of 232 points over their last five meetings, 209 doesn't seem like so much anymore does it?
Dan’s Pick: Over 209
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Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports