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Written by Dan on January 6, 2014

Miami Heat vs. New Orleans Pelicans - 1/7/14: Dan's Free NBA Basketball Pick Against the Spread
Photo by: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Lebron James and the Miami Heat host Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday night

Lebron James and the Miami Heat host Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday night.

Head to head, the Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings while the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Heat are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Pelicans on the other hand are 27-9-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, but just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 road games.

Is it just me or does it feel like every Miami Heat home game lately has finished around the 220 point mark? Well, the over is 8-1 in the Heat's last nine home games and the average total points scored in those contest was 213.8 per game. Miami and Toronto squared off on Sunday and it went under the assigned 201 total points, however, the Heat's previous three games in South Beach all went over the 225 point mark. The over is also 9-3 in their last 12 overall.

The New Orleans Pelicans were held to just 82 points in their loss against Indiana on Saturday night, but they have been in a nice groove offensively since before Christmas as they averaged 105.7 points in their previous seven contests. Now Ryan Anderson and Jason Smith will be missing tonight through injury, which isn't the best news considering they are the best outside shooting big men by far for the Pelicans.

I think this would be a home run play if Anderson was playing, but still, I think this game goes over the total. Miami clearly aren't interested in playing defense at home until the playoffs roll around as evidenced by all their high totals over the past month. New Orleans still has plenty of individual talent to offer and they have topped 107 points in five of their last eight outings...

Dan’s Pick: Over 204

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