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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat - 3/29/14

Miami Heat (48-22) at Milwaukee Bucks (14-58)

NBA Basketball: Saturday, March 29, 2014 at 8:30 pm (Bradley Center)

The Line: Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 -- Over/Under: 200.5 See the Latest Odds

TV:

Lebron James and the Miami Heat travel to Milwaukee to face the Bucks on Saturday night.

Head to head, the Heat are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee while the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Bucks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Heat on the other hand are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

The Milwaukee Bucks have lost eight of their past nine and seven sraight against the Miami Heat, so why do I like them to cover the spread tonight? Well, the Bucks have quietly been one of the better covering teams since the All-Star break and they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. That's pretty good for a team that has won just 14 games this season.

The Heat are coming off a massive 32-point victory in Detroit last night, but that was only the second time they have covered the number in their last eight games away from home. The other win was on Wednesday night in Indiana as they covered by just .5 thanks to two missed free throws by George Hill with one second remaining. Miami have also been pretty poor in the second of back-to-backs.

Milwaukee is still suffering some massive defeats, but they have been pretty competetive for the most part and they have been a much better team at covering the spread than Miami. The Heat aren't a great road team at the moment and I think they win this one by single digits...

Dan’s Pick: Milwaukee +9.5

Follow me on Twitter @Dan_SCP

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat - 3/29/14

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

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