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Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs NBA Pick, Odds, Prediction - 5/4/14 Game Seven

Dallas Mavericks (49-33) at San Antonio Spurs (62-20)

NBA Basketball: Sunday, May 4, 2014 at 3:30 pm (AT&T Center)

The Line: San Antonio Spurs -6.5 -- Over/Under: 198.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: ABC

The Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs play a Sunday afternoon game seven to decide who will play the Portland Trail Blazers in the second round.

The Mavericks dodged a few bullets but shot 51.7 percent from the field and received 29 points from Monta Ellis to win game six. The Mavs are averaging 105.4 points in this series and are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games when scoring at least 100 points. Besides Ellis, Vince Carter has really been the Mavericks X-factor in this series, shooting 48.2 percent and scoring a combined 41 points in his last two games. While Dirk Nowitzki has shot 50 percent or better from the field in his last two games, he’s shooting only 10 percent from beyond the arc in this series. The Mavericks now go on the road where they average 102.1 points and allow 100.9 points. The Dallas Mavericks are 50-38 ATS overall and 30-14 ATS on the road.

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs NBA Pick, Odds, Prediction - 5/4/14 Game Seven

USA TODAY Sports

The Spurs shot 53.3 percent from the field and had all five starters score in double figures, but somehow still fell short in game six. The Spurs now drop to 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when allowing 100 or more points. In this series the Spurs are shooting lights out at 49.9 percent from the field and 41.4 percent from beyond the arc. Tony Parker has scored 20-plus points in back-to-back games and Tim Duncan is shooting 55 percent from the field in this series. The Spurs return home where they average 105.7 points and allow 97.6 points. The San Antonio Spurs are 45-43 ATS overall and 20-24 ATS at home. 

The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 50-19 ATS in their last 69 road games. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in San Antonio.

It's tough to ignore the trends in this matchup, especially when five of the six games in this series have been decided by six points or less. There's no reason to think this game will be any different in a game seven.

Give me the Mavs and the points. 

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Dallas Mavericks +6.5

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