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Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat NBA Pick, Odds, Prediction - 5/24/14 Game Three

Indiana Pacers (56-26) at Miami Heat (54-28)

NBA Basketball: Saturday, May 24, 2014 at 8:30 pm (AmericanAirlines Arena)

The Line: Miami Heat -7 -- Over/Under: 182 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN

The Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat will play game three of the Eastern Conference finals on Saturday night with the series tied at one game apiece.

Despite the Pacers having all five of their starters score in the double figures, they lost game two, 87-83. The Pacers bench scored only nine points and it was only their second loss of the playoffs when holding their opponent under 100 points. Probably the best thing that came out of this performance for the Pacers was a Lance Stephenson sighting, as he scored 25 points and is now shooting 62.1 percent from the field in this series. In the Pacers last five games, they’re averaging 91.4 points on 45.1 percent shooting and allowing 91.4 points on 47.3 percent shooting. The Pacers now go on the road where they are 5-1 SU in the playoffs. The Indiana Pacers are also 46-50-1 ATS overall and 22-25 ATS on the road.

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat NBA Pick, Odds, Prediction - 5/24/14 Game Three

USA TODAY Sports

The Heat played a much better game two, shooting 50.7 percent from the field and getting a combined 45 points from LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Wade is playing like his old self as of late, scoring 20-plus in three straight games and shooting 64.7 percent from the field in this series. In the Heat’s last five games, they’re averaging 94.2 points on 48.9 percent shooting and allowing 96.8 points on 46.8 percent shooting. The Heat are now 9-0 SU in the playoffs when holding their opponent under 100 points. The Heat now go home where they average 103.9 points and allow 96.5 points. The Miami Heat are 44-47-2 ATS overall and 21-24-1 ATS at home. 

The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

The spread is a little steep for my taste, but the Heat are at home and have many days off to prepare for this big matchup. I don't trust the Pacers, and I could easily see the Heat winning this game by double digits. I'd wait closer to game time to see if the number drops a bit before locking it in, but I'm taking the Heat and the chalk. 

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Miami Heat -7

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