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Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat - 5/15/16 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Miami Heat (55-40) at Toronto Raptors (63-31)

NBA Basketball: Sunday, May 15, 2016 at 3:30 pm (Air Canada Centre)

The Line: Toronto Raptors -4.5 -- Over/Under: 189.5 See the Latest Odds


The Miami Heat and the Toronto Raptors duke it out in Game 7 today at the Air Canada Center.

This series has gone back and forth with injuries on both sides, but the Heat may have stolen the momentum in the series with an impressive 103-91 win over the Raptors in game 6. Dwyane Wade has been the best player for the Heat in this series and he had a solid game of 22 points with five assists, two steals and there blocks, but the highlight of the night was the play of Goran Dragic who poured in 30 points with four assists. Joe Johnson had a decent game of 13 points while Justice Winslow was inserted into the starting lineup and chipped in with 12 points while battling foul trouble. With Whiteside still recovering from injury, I had real concerns about the Heat's ability to defend the paint but they did a great job of matching the Raptors in the rebound battle despite opting not to play Udonis Haslem or Amar'e Stoudemire.

Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat - 5/15/16 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction


As for the Raptors, Kyle Lowry poured in a game-high 36 points on 12 of 27 shooting while DeMar DeRozan added 23 points, but no other player finished in double figures as the Raptors shot just 41.5 percent from the field and four of 16 from the 3-point line. DeMarre Carroll scored just five points after scoring just six points in Game 5 while Bismack Biyombo scored just four points against a very small Heat lineup, but he did grab 13 rebounds and should be able to lead the game in rebounds in Game 7 with Jonas Valanciunas confirmed as out unavailable for Sunday.

In ATS trends, the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games, while the Raptors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following a loss of more than 10 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Head to head, the favorite is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings and the under is 9-4 in the last 13 games overall.

The stage is set for the Raptors' All-Star backcourt to carry their team over the line and into the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Heat have been there and done that and they always seem to shift to another gear when their backs are against the wall. I know the Raptors are a much better team at home, but I'm sticking with the Heat and the points in what should be a low-scoring close contest.


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Miami +4.5

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