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Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx - 9/28/16 WNBA Game One Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Lynx vs. Mercury

WNBA Basketball: Wednesday September 28, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Target Arena)

The Line: Lynx -4.5 -- Over/Under: 166 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN2

The Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx square off Wednesday night in game one of the WNBA semifinals at the Target Arena on ESPN2.

The Phoenix Mercury have eliminated the Indiana Fever and New York Liberty in back-to-back victories. The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 85.2 points on 45.7 percent shooting and allowing 83.4 points on 44 percent shooting. Diana Taurasi is averaging 25 points and three assists while Brittney Griner is averaging 20 points and 9.5 rebounds. Penny Taylor is the third double-digit scorer and Candice Dupree is grabbing five assists. The Phoenix Mercury are shooting 34.4 percent from beyond the arc and 84.4 percent from the free throw line. The Mercury are allowing percent 34.9 shooting from deep and are grabbing 32.2 rebounds per game. The Phoenix Mercury have split their last eight road games.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx - 9/28/16 WNBA Game One Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Lynx enter this game with a ton of rest having not played in 11 days. The Minnesota Lynx are averaging 85.8 points on 47.1 percent shooting and allowing 77 points on 41.7 percent shooting. Maya Moore is averaging 19.3 points and 4.2 assists while Sylvia Fowles is averaging 13.9 points and 8.5 rebounds. Seimone Augustus is the third double-digit scorer and Lindsay Whalen is dishing 3.8 assists. The Minnesota Lynx are shooting 33.7 percent from beyond the arc and 80.6 percent from the free throw line. The Lynx are allowing 32.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 35.8 rebounds per game. The Minnesota Lynx have won 10 straight home games.

The Mercury are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games. The Lynx are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. Western Conference. The Mercury are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings overall.

This has been a hell of a rivalry and you can expect a lengthy and tight series. However, for this game, you have to like the huge rest advantage for the home team. The Lynx have been chilling for a week and a half while the Mercury had to win two elimination to get to this point. Not to mention the Lynx have beaten the Mercury in six straight tries.

Give me the home team and small line. 

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Minnesota Lynx -4.5

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