Mike's Match Up

Denver at Memphis 3/13/10

basketball

The Nuggets look to make is six straight wins as they take on the Grizzlies

NBA Basketball: Saturday March 13, 2010, 8:00 EST

The Line: Denver -2.5

While only one of these teams is destined to make the playoffs, both come into tonight playing well. Denver has reeled off five consecutive victories to keep pace with streaking Mavericks in the battle for the Western Conference's number two seed. The Nuggets are a little short-handed with Kenyon Martin and Ty Lawson sidelined with injuries, but have pulled through against some mediocre competition. Martin's toughness and Lawson's game-changing quickness of the bench will be missed on a team that is playing for playoff positioning.

Memphis has been and up-and-down team all year, and right now they seem to be on an upward trend. They have won five of six overall, but some of their recent success can be attributed to their schedule. Other than their annihilation of the Celtics, the wins have all been against non-playoff teams. Still, you have to hand it to coach Lionel Hollins and a young Grizzlies team that virtually no one thought was going to be good at the start of the season. Zach Randolph is an All-Star, Marc Gasol is one of the most improved players, and Rudy Gay is averaging 20 points a game. Even Mike Conley has played well of late.

These teams have split the first two games of the season series, each protecting their home court. This is not surprising, considering Denver has one of the most dramatic home-road splits in the NBA. They are a stellar 28-5 at the Pepsi Center, and 16-16 on the road. Both teams are coming off close victories last night, so neither has an advantage in terms of rest. As mentioned earlier, one of the Nugget's potential advantages coming into the game has been negated- their depth. Memphis has one of the most balanced starting lineups in the league, but they do not have reliable subs. Without two players from their rotation, Denver will have to rely similarly on their starters. J.R. Smith will play a key role in this match-up; if he shoots well this team can be virtually unbeatable.

I like Memphis in this match-up even though Denver is the better team and the spread is low. The Grizzlies are playing well at home once again, and their opponent is average on the road. Melo and Randolph should have big games, but the home team will prevail in a high-scoring affair.

Mike's Pick: Memphis +2.5

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