San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles LakersNBA Basketball: Monday February 8, 2010 10:30 PM EST
The Line: Los Angeles -4
Two perennial Western Conference heavyweights will battle it out Monday night when the Los Angeles Lakers host the San Antonio Spurs. San Antonio is in the middle part of an eight game road trip, and is coming off a convincing win over the other team from L.A. They are a disappointing sixth in the crowded West despite coming into the year with huge expectations. Richard Jefferson has not provided as big a spark as many predicted, but young players like DeJuan Blair and George Hill have stepped up for a team filled with veterans. Meanwhile, Los Angeles sits comfortably atop the Western Conference with a 39-13 record. The Lakers got the Portland monkey off their back on Friday, thrashing the Blazers 99-82. The bad news for L.A. is that Kobe (questionable for tonight) missed the last game with a sprained ankle, and Andrew Bynum (doubtful for tonight) left the game early with a bruised hip. The purple and gold will seek revenge over their rivals after San Antonio dominated the first match-up 105-85.
Key Stats: San Antonio is an upper echelon team in almost every offensive category. They are seventh in offensive efficiency, sixth in shooting percentage, fifth in three-point shooting, and have the ninth lowest turnover rate in the league. With Tim Duncan up there in age and the Ginobili-Parker combo hobbled throughout much of the year, the Spurs offense has been propelled with a balanced attack. Their bench has been far and away the best in the NBA, outscoring their opposition by 17 points per game. Defensively, they haven't been quite as good. They are in the middle of the pack in opponent's field goal percentage, and force the fewest turnovers of any team. On the other hand, the Spurs have limited other teams' free throw attempts and second chance opportunities. The Lakers have not been as prolific on offense as they have been the last couple years. L.A. is tenth in overall efficiency, but they are outside the top ten in field goal percentage, offensive rebounding, and free throw attempts. These numbers are surprising given the offensive firepower they have. One category they excel in is turnovers. They have the second lowest turnover rate, a stat that bodes well against a team that struggles to force turnovers. While the offense has underachieved, the Laker defense has improved from last year. Artest has always been a tough defender, and a relatively healthy Bynum has given them a real presence in the middle. They are fourth in defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to shoot only 44% (and 32% from three). At 24-4, Los Angeles owns one of the best home records in the NBA.
Match-Up to Watch: The front court battle. With Bynum doubtful and Kobe questionable, a heavy burden will be placed on Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom at both ends of the floor. They will have to take on Duncan and pick up the scoring slack on offense. For San Antonio, Duncan and Co. just have to slow down their big guys enough to let the guards decide the game. With Ginobili, Parker, and Jefferson, the Spurs have the decided edge in the backcourt.
Bottom Line: Much will depend on the Lakers injury situation. If Bynum sits out and Kobe is slowed by injury, the slight advantage goes to the Spurs. In the last matchup, San Antonio used a balanced attack to defeat the short-handed Lakers. I expect the same to happen tonight.
Mike's Pick: Spurs +4
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