The Houston Rockets are playing good ball on the season, and the Rockets will need to continue that solid play on Monday when Houston heads to the Pepsi Center to face the Denver Nuggets.

The Denver Nuggets are a top ten team this season, and the race between the Nuggets and the Thunder in the Northwest should be a season long one. Currently the Nuggets trail the Thunder by just 3.5 games as Denver is currently sitting at 15-9 on the season. Denver has hit a bit of a slump recently as the Nuggets have dropped four of their last five, including their last two. The Nuggets philosophy this season is that they are going to try and outscore you, and hope their defense is good enough to make a few key stops when necessary. Denver has the top ranked offense in the league this season as the Nuggets are scoring an average of 104.6 points per game, but on the other end of the floor the Nuggets are allowing 99.3 per game, 26^th best in the league.

The Houston Rockets are currently third place in the Southwest standings, but anything can happen as the Rockets are just 2.5 games back of the division leading San Antonio Spurs. Houston is just above .500 on the season at 13-11, and the Rockets are struggling somewhat as Houston has just two wins in their last five games. The Rockets have a similar style to the Nuggets as Houston has the seventh ranked offense in the league averaging 98 points per game, while giving up 96.5 points per game this season, ranking Houston 21^st in scoring defense.

The Denver Nuggets haven't been a very profitable play lately as the Nuggets are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games. Denver is also just 2-5 against the spread in the last seven home games for the Nuggets. The total has gone under in five of the last six games for the Rockets, and the total has gone under the number in six of the last eight road games for Houston.

I'm not seeing a real distinct advantage here as both the line and the total look to be about right, so I am going to say ride the trend of the under for the Rockets. I rarely suggest making a play based on a trend only, so I am personally staying away here, but for my free pick I will say the under looks to be the “safest” play in Denver on Monday.